Written Commentary
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures are steady to lower.
Mary Daly of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1:00 PM.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 66% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at its September 18 meeting.
Despite many Fed officials predicting only one fed funds rate reduction this year, financial futures markets are suggesting there will be two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2024.
September 30-year U.S. Treasury bond futures are likely to break out to the upside from a seven-day triangle pattern on the daily chart.
The long term fundamentals are bullish on balance, especially for futures at the long end of the yield curve.
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are mixed today after S&P 500 and NASDAQ futures advanced to new record highs last week.
The 9:30 central time June Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing general activity index is expected to be -14.0.
The longer term fundamentals remain supportive to stock index futures.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index is lower.
The Ifo Business Climate indicator for Germany unexpectedly declined to 88.6 in June 2024 from 89.3 in May, which is below forecasts of 89.7. The expectations gauge fell to 89 from 90.4.
The Confederation of British Industry survey’s total order book balance in the U.K. in June improved to -18, 2024, which is the highest in three months and above market estimates of -25. In addition, expectations for output advanced to their highest level since October. However, export orders fell to their lowest level since February 2021.
The Japanese yen depreciated to almost 160 per U.S. dollar, hovering near 34-year lows, as Bank of Japan officials remained divided on how to proceed with the next interest rate increase.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
