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FOMC Statement and Fed Chair Powell Press Conference Today

By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS   

 

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

U.S. stock index futures are higher with NASDAQ futures advancing to a new record high of over 10,000.

The main events today will be the 1:00 central time release of the statement from the Federal Open Market Committee and the 1:30 virtual press conference from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.     

Applications for loans to purchase a home increased 5.0% last week from the previous week and were 13% higher than a year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. 

The May consumer price index was down 0.1% when unchanged was expected.

The June Atlanta Federal Reserve business inflation expectations report will be released at 9:00 central time.  The report last month showed inflation at 1.5%.
  
Stock index futures continue to show positive technical action and have been performing well in spite of a variety of geopolitical concerns. 

CURRENCY FUTURES

Much of the trade appears to be evening up ahead of the statement from the FOMC.

The Japanese yen is higher despite news that Japan's April core machinery orders fell 12.0% on the month when a decline of 8.6% was anticipated.  

The Australian dollar is higher despite news that the nine weeks of consecutive gains in Australian consumer confidence has ended, with confidence falling 1.3% last week.
 

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES 

According to financial futures markets there is an 84.3% probability that the FOMC will leave its fed funds rate unchanged at zero to 25 basis points. Also, there is a 15.7% probability of a 25-basis point increase.
The Fed cut its target range for short-term interest rates to 0-0.25% in March.
Fed Chair Powell will likely acknowledge the increase in nonfarm payrolls, but still deliver a dovish on balance statement.
In addition, Powell could clarify the Fed's views on its bond-buying programs and its long-term intentions on interest rates.  

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE


June 20 S&P 500
Support    3184.00     Resistance    3233.00 

June 20 U.S. Dollar Index
Support    95.850       Resistance    96.550

June 20 Euro Currency
Support    1.13250     Resistance    1.13980 

June 20 Japanese Yen
Support    .92062        Resistance    .93330

June 20 Canadian Dollar
Support    .74400        Resistance    .74900 

June 20 Australian Dollar
Support    .6925          Resistance    .7032

September 20 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds
Support    174^0         Resistance    175^20

August 20 Gold
Support    1715.0         Resistance    1745.0 

July 20 Copper
Support    2.5950         Resistance     2.6650 

July 20 Crude Oil
Support   37.55             Resistance    39.05

 



For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911  or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff.  Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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