Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
USDA report day. Grains are lower. US stocks are higher on hopes of US interest rates cut. US Dollar is lower on talk of lower US rates. Crude is higher on OPEC est of higher demand. Gold is lower but some look for higher trend if US Fed drops rate in Sep.
SU is near 10.60. Trade est US 2023/24 soybean carryout at 355 vs USDA June 350 and 2024/25 at 449 vs USDA 455. Weekly US soybean export commit is down 15 pct vs ly. Weekly US soymeal sales slowed. Dalian soybean, palmoil and soyoil futures were higher but still near recent lows. Dalian soymeal futures were lower. Trade est NOPA June soybean crush at 177.9 mil bu vs March 183.6 and 165.0 ly. CONAB est soybean crop at 147.4 mmt vs USDA 153.0. China bought US soybeans this week but some feel new sales may be limited. Total China imports est at 103.3 mmt; Brazil 73.7, US 25.0 and Argentina 4.6.
CU is near 3.98. US domestic and export basis is firm. US corn export commit is up 37 pct vs ly. There is talk China may be asking for US corn prices. Some est total China corn imports at 24.6 mmt; Brazil 13.0, Ukraine 5.3, US 3.7 and Russia 2.4. Dalian corn prices were higher. CONAB est Brazil corn crop at 115.8 mmt vs USDA 122.0. Trade est US 2023/24 corn carryout at 2,049 vs USDA 2,022 and 2024/25 at 2,312 vs USDA 2,102. Argentina corn harvest is near 70 pct and est near 46.5 mmt vs USDA 53.0. We will see if shorts want to cover post USDA and into next 2 weeks US Midwest weather.
WU is near 5.68. Trade est US 2024/25 wheat carryout at 788 vs USDA 758. Trade est US 2024 all wheat crop at 1,909 vs USDA previous est of 1,875 and 1,812 ly, Winter wheat is est at 1,316 vs 1,295 previous. HRW 743 vs 725 previous. SRW 344 vs 342 previous. Spring wheat crop is est at 521 vs 468 ly. Black Sea prices are cheapest but August World trade is thin. SE Europe, Ukraine and Russia heat remains concern to everyone but AI trading machines. US wheat export sales were lower than expected but commit is up 42 pct vs ly
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