Written Commentary
MORNING LIVESTOCK FUTURES OUTLOOK
LEAN HOGS
December Lean Hogs went off the board on December 14th at $67.17. The pork cutout 5 day carcass average price was $84.75. The current 5 day pork carcass prices is $82.19 and February Lean Hogs are at $68.45. There is a month and a half before February Lean Hogs settle so anything can happen to have Lean Hogs rally, but pork prices will need to go up. US consumers did not increase pork consumption enough in 2023 to make up for the increasing pork supplies. Exports certainly helped but did more to keep pork prices from becoming an avalanche.
LIVE CATTLE
Holiday beef demand appears to be over for rib roasts. Thursday morning the drop did cause a big change on the cumulative Boxed Beef price but with light movement unless other primals turn lower, expect a knee jerk reaction like the Live Cattle market did mid-day. What happens over the next week is much more important than the severe drop in one day. The volatility on daily prices is likely to continue in 2024. One thing is certain, packers are going to closely watch how many cattle are killed to beef sales.
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