Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. SU is down. CU is down. WU is up. KWU is down. MWU is down. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. Russia/Ukraine tension is increasing. US on high alert as World awaits Iran retaliation to Israel.
SU is near 9.43. US central Midwest rains offers resistance. Next 2 weeks looks drier with normal temps. Weekly US old crop soybean export sales were only 120 mt with new crop 800 mt. Lower old crop sales weighed on futures and spreads. US soybean commit is 13 pct below ly. New crop sales were 800 mt. July NOPA US soybean crush was 183 mil bu vs 173 ly. Soyoil stocks dropped 1,500 mil lbs vs 1,622 in June and 1,527 ly. Soyoil futures dropped below 40 cents. Oil share dropped below 40 pct. Dalian soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures were higher. Futures are hoping for new stimulus.
CU is near 3.72. Favorable central US Midwest weather offers resistance. Next 2 weeks looks drier with normal temps. US farmers increased cash sales which weighed on basis and widened CU-CZ spread to -22. Weekly US old crop corn export sales were only 221 mt despite fact US is cheaper than South America or Ukraine. There is some talk that China imports maybe only 15 mmt vs USDA 23. Total commit is up 38 pct vs ly. New crop sales were1,340 mt. Dalian corn futures were lower.
WU is near 5.29. US export sales are up 32 pct vs ly. Market is looking for a price to help increase US exports. Matif futures were sharply lower with spreads widening. There are rumors that Egypt may be no longer negotiating a large Black Sea wheat purchase. Canada rail workers are threatening strike. This is offering support to MWZ. Russian missiles attacked western owned grain silos.
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