Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Month end. Grains are mixed to lower. SF is down 3 cents and near 13.43. SMF is near 426.0. BOF is near 52.69. CH is unch and near 4.76. WH is down 3 cents and near 5.82. KWH is down 2 cents and near 6.31. MWH is unch and near 7.25. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher ahead of OPEC meeting.
SF is near 13.43. There were new US soybeans sales despite talk that China may have bought additional 6-8 US soybean cargoes for Feb. Both Brazil and Argentina farmers have slowed cash sales. Still talk of higher Argentina 2024 soybean crop and lower Brazil. US weekly soybean export sales near 850-1,500 mt. There remains more concern that a normal 2024 Argentina crop could lower US crush demand. For now, US monthly crush are near monthly record.
CH is near 4.76. Dalian corn futures were lower. There remains uncertainty over Black Sea corn exports either due to weather or politics. US does have window for new export. Brazil continues to satisfy China corn needs. US weekly corn export sales are est near 600-1,200 mt. S Korea bought US March corn just below Brazil feed wheat prices. Weekly US ethanol production and stocks were down 1 pct vs last week. Stocks are still down 7 pct vs ly.
Wheat futures are lower. There were 1,347 WZ deliveries and 100 KWZ. Futures rallied due to being oversold. There remain some uncertainty over potential Ukraine and Russia wheat exports due to weather and politics. US south Plains forecast is warm and dry. KWZ has rallied 50 cents from recent lows. Weekly US wheat export sales est near 200-500 mt. Commit is still below last year. Matif corn is higher on slower Black Sea logistics due to heavy storms and first wheat vessel to China.
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