Global Ag News for July 11.24

TOP HEADLINES

Erdogan tells Zelensky Turkey is trying to revitalize Black Sea Grain Initiative

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the NATO summit on Thursday that Turkey is continuing its efforts to end the Ukraine-Russia war with a just peace.

Turkey had begun to revive the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Erdogan told his Ukrainian counterpart, adding that Turkey is ready for any initiative, including mediation, to lay the groundwork for peace.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 7 1/4 in SRW, down 10 3/4 in HRW, down 6 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 4; Soybeans down 4 1/4; Soymeal down $1.80; Soyoil up 0.04.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 26 1/2 in SRW, down 26 in HRW, down 21 in HRS; Corn is down 17 1/4; Soybeans down 66 1/4; Soymeal down $18.80; Soyoil down 2.51.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 9 1/2 in SRW, down 13 1/4 in HRW, down 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 14; Soybeans down 40 1/2; Soymeal down $21.80; Soyoil up 2.40.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 11.7% in SRW, down 7.9% in HRW, down 14.2% in HRS; Corn is down 13.7%; Soybeans down 11.7%; Soymeal down 2.0%; Soyoil down 1.5%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans down 2 yuan; Soymeal down 25; Soyoil up 54; Palm oil up 100; Corn down 3 — Malaysian Palm is down 21.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 21 ringgit (-0.53%) at 3914.

 

There were changes in registrations (-77 Corn, 135 Soybeans, -12 Soyoil). Registration total: 524 SRW Wheat contracts; 7 Oats; 288 Corn; 155 Soybeans; 1,555 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 11 were: SRW Wheat down 6,373 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,045, Corn down 7,668, Soybeans up 5,329, Soymeal up 3,330, Soyoil down 565.

 

Northern Plains: Isolated showers remain possible through the end of this week, but some areas may stay completely dry. Through the weekend and into early next week, a few systems from Canada or the Northern Rockies could slide into the region. Some strong to severe storms may accompany showers this weekend. Above normal temperatures will persist into early next week with a slight cool down possible later next week.

Central/Southern Plains: Some areas are experiencing flooding in the Southeast Plains after soaking rains from remnants of Hurricane Beryl. Showers will remain isolated across the Central Plains into early next week and some areas across Kansas could use more moisture. The heaviest precipitation over the next five days will favor coastal and southern Texas. Conditions trend warmer this weekend, with temperatures remaining above normal across the Central Plains into the middle of next week. Temperatures will be more seasonable in Texas.

Midwest: The western Midwest will see periods of showers and storms into early next week, but some areas may stay mostly dry. A few storms could be strong to severe this weekend. Temperatures will start to trend above normal by late this week in western areas. By late this weekend into early next week, high temperatures will approach the upper 80s to low 90s for much of the region.

Delta: Pop-up, daytime showers and storms remain possible throughout the region into early next week, but some areas across northern Arkansas and southern Missouri are in need of drier conditions after the recent heavy rainfall. Warmer temperatures will build across northern areas this weekend. Temperatures will likely remain above normal for northern and central areas into early next week.

Canadian Prairies: Warmer temperatures are helping canola and wheat grow, especially across western areas. Above normal temperatures in western areas will persist into early next week, but temperatures will remain more seasonable farther east. Rounds of scattered showers may develop this weekend and early next week as pieces of energy from a system near Alaska break off and dip south. With the warmer temperatures, areas that miss showers this weekend and early next week may see drought conditions expand.

Brazil: Rain showers have been persistent in southern areas this week. More moderate to heavy showers are forecast for southern Brazil into early next week, which are not needed in the state of Rio Grande do Sul that is still recovering from flooding. Winter wheat planting and development are behind and this will not help. Safrinha corn harvest is likely continuing across central areas with drier conditions persisting. Rain coming to southern areas will slow down what remains. While cooler air lingers in southern Brazil through this weekend, temperatures are not expected to get low enough to cause widespread frosts.

Argentina: Cold and dry conditions have plagued Argentina and soil moisture across the country is low for winter wheat establishment. High pressure will keep conditions mostly dry into the middle of next week. Cold temperatures will continue into this weekend with widespread frosts also being unfavorable for wheat.

Europe: Wet conditions remain a concern across Germany and France as producers try to harvest wheat between showers. A few more systems and fronts will move through northwest Europe into early this weekend, bringing unwanted rain to wet areas in France and Germany, but beneficial showers elsewhere outside of the southeast. The southeast is much hotter and drier and has had issues with wildfires and drought as well. The pattern is not favorable for turning this around. Conditions may trend drier in western Europe later next week.

Black Sea: Isolated showers will continue across the region into early next week, but the main storm track will stay north of the region. Dryness and drought continue to expand in most areas and even those that have seen rain recently still have large rainfall deficits this season. Little relief in the hot temperatures will also lend to additional stress on the corn and sunflower crop.

Australia: Isolated showers continue in southern areas through the weekend. A cold airmass will build across the east and linger through much of next week. Low temperatures could approach freezing, lending to a risk for frost in parts of New South Wales. Overall, crops and soil moisture are in fair condition but could use more consistent rain in the months ahead.

The player sheet for 7/11 had funds: net buyers of 5,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 2,500 corn, buyers of 2,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and buyers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased about 68,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in an international tender
• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from South America or South Africa.
• WHEAT TENDER: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) late on Thursday purchased around 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in a private deal without issuing an international tender
• NO PURCHASE IN CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Korea Feed Association (KFA) is believed to have rejected all offers and made no purchase in a tender to buy up to 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn from South America or South Africa.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought 107,330 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia, in a regular tender.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.

 

 

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending July 4, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: Mexico with 157k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 321k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Thailand with 61k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending July 4, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 9k tons of the 26.5k tons of pork sold in the week
• Mexico led in pork purchases for the week, China bought 3.4k tons
• South Korea led in beef purchases

 

Brazil 2023-24 Corn Crop Seen at 115.9M Tons: Conab

Output est. raised from 114.1m tons, Brazil’s national supply co. says in its monthly report.

• Analysts in a Bloomberg survey were expecting 115.5m tons
• Yield seen higher at 5,553 kg/ha vs 5,478 kg/ha last month
• Soybean production seen little changed at 147.3m tons

 

Brazil crop agency ups corn output view, keeps exports unchanged

Farmers in Brazil, one of the world’s largest food producers, are expected to harvest 90 million metric tons of second corn in the present cycle, nearly two million tons more than forecast last month, crop agency Conab said on Thursday.

Farmers are still reaping their second corn, which is planted after soybeans are harvested in the same fields and is mainly exported in the second half.

Second corn will represent about 78% of total Brazilian corn output in the 2023/24 season, Conab data shows.

Despite the adjustment in projections, Conab said second corn and total corn production will be smaller this year than in the last, partly reflecting a drop in planted area.

For second corn, the area planted was nearly 6% smaller this season, when growers sowed 16.199 million hectares (40 million acres), the agency said.

“The results achieved [so far] show the disparity in climatic conditions,” Conab said referring to the harvesting work, noting in states including Mato Grosso, Para, Tocantins and in parts of Goias, rainfall levels were well distributed throughout the development stage, resulting in good yields.

However, yields were poorer in the northwest of Parana, Sao Paulo and in a large parts of the cultivated areas of Mato Grosso do Sul, as the climate did not favor these regions.

The harvest of Brazil’s second corn crop has continued to advance in all producing states and reached 48% of the sown area at the beginning of July, according to Conab.

If Conab’s estimates are confirmed, Brazil’s overall second corn production will be 12% smaller than in the 2022/23 crop year. Total corn production is likewise seen about 12% lower at 115.8 million tons.

Corn exports too will be significantly smaller at 33.5 million tons in this cycle, compared with 54.6 million tons in the previous year, Conab said.

 

Argentina Wheat Forecast Cut 2.4% on Less Acreage: Rosario

Farmers who are sowing 2024-25 wheat in Argentina are forecast to reap 20.5m metric tons at harvest, down from a previous estimate of 21m, after dryness in June impeded some planting, the Rosario Board of Trade said in a monthly report.

• NOTE: The bulk of Argentina’s wheat harvest is in Nov., Dec.
• Planted area seen at 6.7m hectares (16.6m acres), down from 6.9m last month
• Forecast for 2023-24 soy and corn crops unchanged at 50m and 47.5m metric tons, respectively

 

NOPA June US soybean crush seen at 177.936 million bushels

The U.S. soybean crush likely declined in June and soyoil stocks were estimated to have fallen to a five-month low, analysts said ahead of a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Monday.

NOPA members, who handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, were estimated to have crushed 177.936 million bushels last month, according to the average of estimates from 10 analysts surveyed by Reuters.

If realized, the June crush would be down 3.1% from the May crush of 183.625 million bushels but up 7.8% from the 165.023 million bushels in June 2023. It would also be the largest June crush on record, topping the prior mark set in 2020.

The U.S. soy crush pace has trended higher as soy processors have built new plants and expanded existing facilities over the past several years to capitalize on rising vegetable oil demand from renewable fuels makers.

June crush estimates ranged from 173.280 million to 189.134 million bushels, with a median of 176.800 million bushels.

The NOPA report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CDT (1600 GMT) on Monday, July 15.

Soyoil supplies held by NOPA members as of June 30 were estimated at 1.669 billion lbs, based on estimates from seven analysts.

That would be down 3.2% from 1.724 billion lbs at the end of May and down 1.24% from the 1.690 billion lbs at the end of June last year.

Oil stocks estimates ranged from 1.585 billion to 1.750 billion lbs, with a median of 1.678 billion lbs.

 

China logs higher summer grain output in 2024, planting acreage stable

China’s summer grain production in 2024 rose 2.5% from a year ago to 149.78 million metric tons, according to data released on Friday by the National Statistics Bureau.

Wheat production rose 2.7% to 138.22 million metric tons, while summer grain planting acreage was stable at 26.61 million hectares, it said.

 

Floods and Drought Damage Some Crops in China: CASDE

Extreme weather events have damaged some crops in China’s main grain-producing regions, the agriculture ministry said in a report, though it maintained its production estimates for the new season.

• Planting and growth of soybeans in northern China were affected to various degrees by alternating drought and floods, according to the China Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates report
• More rains hit peanut planting regions in the north in July, increasing the risk of flooding in some fields, according to the monthly report released on Friday
• Some sugar farms in Guangxi, the country’s top producer of the sweetener, were also flooded. Impact on sugar cane growth has yet to be assessed
• Corn yield in some top producers including Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces, is expected to rise 1.5% from a year ago
• Estimates for production, imports and consumption of corn, soybeans, cotton, edible oils and sugar for 2024-2025 remained unchanged

 

China June Agricultural Imports: Customs

General Administration of Customs says on website.

• Soybean Imports 11.114m Tons
  • Soybean imports YTD fell 2.2% y/y to 48.481m tons
• Edible vegetable oil imports in June 627,000 tons
  • Edible vegetable oil imports YTD fell 21.9% y/y to 3.485m tons
• Rubber imports in June 471,000 tons
  • Rubber imports YTD fell 18% y/y to 3.284m tons
• Meat (including offal) imports in June 515,000 tons
  • Meat (including offal) imports YTD fell 13.4% y/y to 3.295m tons
• Fertilizer exports in June 2.959m tons
  • Fertilizer exports YTD fell 0.8% y/y to 12.606m tons

 

China’s June soybean imports up 10.7%, buyers focus on Brazil crop

China’s soybean imports in June rose 10.7% from a year earlier, a Reuters’ calculation of customs data showed on Friday, as buyers stocked up on cheaper Brazilian beans ahead of the North American export season in the fourth quarter.

The world’s biggest soybean buyer imported 11.11 million metric tons in June, compared with 10 million tons a year earlier.

Brazil’s soy export season is slowing down as the harvest season wraps up. Excess rains and heavy flooding hampered production and shipment in May.

Shipments in the first half of the year fell 2.2% from a year earlier to 48.48 million metric tons, the General Administration of Customs data showed.

China is expected to log record volumes of soybean imports in July, drawn by lower prices and the prospect that Donald Trump could reignite trade tensions if he is elected U.S. president in November.

July arrivals are expected to amount to 12 million-13 million tons, compared with 9.73 million tons shipped in the same month a year ago, traders and analysts said.

“There is definitely some more preparation and buying ahead of a potential Trump win in November,” said Darin Friedrichs, co-founder of Shanghai-based Sitonia Consulting.

“The market is pricing in the potential for that, but also the uncertainty around what trade actions might be put in place,” he said.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has pegged soybean imports in the 2024/25 marketing year at 103 million metric tons, unchanged from its estimates of the previous year.

 

Ukraine Says It Seized Vessel That Had Ferried ‘Looted’ Grain

• Shipping company denies any allegations of wrongdoing
• Investigators say ship had made trips to port in Crimea

Ukraine has seized a cargo vessel that it claims has ferried “looted agricultural products” procured from its Russian-occupied territories, the first such action since Moscow’s invasion in 2022.

The vessel, USKO MFU, sailing under a Cameroon flag, had entered and left Sevastopol port to collect agricultural goods, according to a statement on the website of Ukraine’s General Prosecutor. The nation officially stopped using that port after Russia occupied the peninsula in 2014 and it is sanctioned by the European Union and US. The ship’s captain has also been detained.

“The ship repeatedly docked at the seaport of Sevastopol to pick up looted agricultural products” in 2023 and 2024, Ukraine’s Security Services said in a statement on Thursday. The vessel was the first to be seized “since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale aggression,” the country’s top government prosecutor Andriy Kostin said in a statement on social media platform X. “Previously, such arrests were made only in absentia.”

Mehmet Fevzi Usta, an executive of Guha Insaat Mermer Madencilik, which owns the ship, said Ukraine forces boarded the ship as it passed the Sulina Canal and stopped it. He denied that the ship had ever called at the Crimean port. It had used various Russian ports in the past, he said.

 

Wheat Crop in Western Australia Seen Rising 20% Y/y: GIWA

Wheat output in the key growing state of Western Australia is expected to reach 9.2m tons in the 2024 season — up 20% on last year’s harvest — after rainfall in early July offered relief to parched crops in most grain regions, according to a monthly industry report.

• Yield potential in the top producing state now looks “reasonable” after 15mm or more in much of the area, the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia said Friday
• Still, conditions need to remain favorable throughout the season for the state’s current potential of 15-16m tons of total grain production to be achieved
• Total crop area in the state is up from 2023, with growers ramping up wheat plantings and rotating out of canola
• Other crop estimates from July forecast:
  • Barley at 4.1m tons
  • Canola at 2.2m tons
  • Oats at 405,000 tons

 

France Soft-Wheat Harvest Lagging, Barley 61% Complete: Agrimer

4% of France’s soft-wheat crop had been harvested up to July 8, according to FranceAgriMer data released Friday.

• That trails the 26% harvested at this time last year, and is below the 5-year average of 19%
• 61% of the winter barley crop is harvested, compared to 33% in the week earlier and 90% this time last year
• Durum wheat harvest is 18% complete, compared to 7% in the prior week and 54% this time last year

 

French Wheat Exports to Fall 15% in 2024-25 Season: AgriMer

• France’s soft-wheat exports are expected to total 14.1m tons in the season that began July 1, crops office FranceAgriMer said in its first outlook for 2024-25
• That compares with 16.5m tons in the 2023-24 season
• Of the total for 2024-25, exports outside the EU are estimated at 7.5m tons, down 26% y/y
• The drop in available exports means France may potentially lose some market share, possibly to Russian supplies, said Marc Zribi, head of FranceAgriMer’s grains unit
  • “There is a precedent in the 2016 harvest, which saw a decrease in French exports, when Russia rushed in” to grab a bigger market share, he said. “But we still have 14 million tons available for exports, so we may only lose some specific market share”
• Stockpiles seen at 3m tons, down from 3.89m tons

BARLEY

• Exports seen at 5.8m tons, down from 6.8m tons a year earlier
• Of the total, sales outside EU are seen at 3m tons, down from 3.8m tons

 

La Nina weather 70% likely to develop in Aug-Oct, says US forecaster

There is a 70% chance of the La Nina weather pattern, characterized by cold temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, developing during the August to October period, a U.S. government forecaster said on Thursday.

The current neutral phase between La Nina and El Nino weather patterns is expected to continue for several months, with a 79% chance of La Nina November through January, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly forecast.

WHY IT’S IMPORTANT

La Nina, a climate pattern that begins with colder-than-normal ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is linked to both floods and drought, as well as an increase in the frequency of hurricanes in the Caribbean.

CONTEXT

The cycle between El Nino, La Nina, and a neutral phase typically lasts two to seven years.

Experts have said Latin America and the Caribbean should brace for the arrival of La Nina.

In rice- and palm oil-producing Southeast Asian countries, meanwhile, wet weather could boost yields, while a normal Indian monsoon could support production and farm incomes.

 

US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending July 9: USDA

The following table shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending July 9, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Corn area experiencing moderate to intense drought remained at 7%
• Soybean area in drought dropped a point from last week to 8%

 

 

 

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