Global Ag News for Aug 2.24

TOP HEADLINES

Global Food Prices Fell Slightly in July Driven by Grains

Global food prices declined slightly in July, as falling grain prices offset gains in vegetable oil, sugar and meat, according to an index of food-commodity prices from the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization.

• Grains prices fell 3.8% from June due to wheat harvests in the northern hemisphere and generally favorable conditions in Canada and the US
• Vegetable oil prices rose 2.4% from June
• Dairy prices were unchanged, while meat costs were up 1.2%
• FAO sugar price index was up 0.7%

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 3/4 in SRW, down 2 in HRW, down 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/4; Soybeans up 10 3/4; Soymeal up $2.40; Soyoil up 0.35.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 6 3/4 in SRW, up 7 in HRW, down 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 10 1/4; Soybeans down 21; Soymeal down $6.10; Soyoil down 0.01.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 3 in SRW, up 3 1/2 in HRW, up 6 1/4 in HRS; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans up 4 3/4; Soymeal up $2.90; Soyoil down 0.52.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 15.6% in SRW, down 13.9% in HRW, down 18.8% in HRS; Corn is down 18.7%; Soybeans down 20.4%; Soymeal down 7.3%; Soyoil down 10.4%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans up 52 yuan; Soymeal unchanged; Soyoil up 2; Palm oil up 70; Corn down 23 — Malaysian Palm is up 47.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 47 ringgit (+1.21%) at 3917.

 

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 424 SRW Wheat contracts; 6 Oats; 50 Corn; 44 Soybeans; 1,166 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 1 were: SRW Wheat up 4,809 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,951, Corn down 2,588, Soybeans up 5,280, Soymeal up 7,334, Soyoil down 7,620.

 

August Deliveries

• Soybeans
  • 8/1: 37
  • Total:  122
• Soybean Oil
  • 8/1: 4
  • Total: 955

 

Northern Plains: Scattered showers fell across the Dakotas this week, but western areas did not see much precipitation, being unfavorably dry and warm. Another front drops into the region over the weekend and will be pushed through early next week, the front should bring scattered showers through the region. Another may develop for the middle of next week. Temperatures have been warm to hot in some areas, but will drop behind the front this weekend into next week with a period of much milder temperatures for next week.

Central/Southern Plains: With a couple of fronts moving through this week, some showers have been moving through, but coverage has been low. Kansas has fared better than other areas. Isolated showers will be possible through the weekend. Temperatures have been and continue to be hot and stressful, reducing soil moisture and crop health. A front will get pushed into the region next week, bringing a burst of mild air into the region to help reduce the stress. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front as well. The front may get stuck in the region for most of next week and produce sporadic showers throughout the week.

Midwest: A front that brought severe weather across the west on Wednesday continues through the east through Friday, bringing scattered clusters of showers and thunderstorms and potential severe weather. Despite the front, temperatures will continue to be hot. Though showers could limit the overall highs, overnight lows will continue to be mostly in the upper 60s and 70s. A cold front will drop into far northern areas this weekend with milder air and will be pushed through the region next week. Showers will occur along this front as well. Despite all the chances for showers, it will come in clusters and some areas are going to be missed. Those that are missed will see declining soil moisture and crop conditions.

Delta: A front moving through the Corn Belt is unlikely to bring showers to much of the region through the weekend, though some isolated showers are possible. Instead, temperatures are high and stressful. Soil moisture is currently favorable in much of the region that could help sustain through the heat, but it will be declining. A stronger cold front is forecast to move into the region in the middle of next week, which should bring some relief to the temperatures and potential for some showers.

Canadian Prairies: Despite some fronts moving through the region this week, showers have been very isolated and light, a trend that continues into the weekend. Temperatures are warmer, though potential for extreme heat is low with the fronts passing through. Soil moisture continues to decline and is becoming critical for wheat and canola in their critical stages of reproduction and fill. Milder air will move in behind a cold front this weekend and another burst of mild air moves across next week. The system that pushes the front south early next week could bring a burst of better rainfall, but should also miss some areas.

Brazil: Another front will move into southern areas this weekend with showers into next week. This increase in shower frequency across the south is better as the region has endured long stretches of dryness over the winter bounded by heavy rain. Some flooding may occur though as the front sticks around for much of next week. Wheat could use more consistent lighter rain as it gets closer to flowering after late planting.

Argentina: Dryness continues to be a concern for winter wheat in the short term and for the coming corn and soybean crops in the long term. Another front moves through Friday into the weekend, but forecast rainfall will be patchy and lighter than the country needs. Another system could help out with that in the middle of next week as it is forecast to settle over the country for a few days.

Europe: Southeastern areas continue to deal with heat and dryness concerns for small grains and cotton despite some irregular precipitation over the last few weeks. Spain and Italy have also been unfavorably dry for their summer crop prospects. A small disturbance will continue to move through central Europe very slowly over the next few days, getting some rain into needed areas but also brought more rain into France and Germany that do not need it. Several more fronts are lining up to move through this weekend and next week, with the focus for showers occurring mostly in the north. Northeastern areas could use the rain while northwestern areas continue to be unfavorably wet.

Black Sea: Very limited showers have moved through the region early this week, but were light if they occurred at all and coverage has been low. A disturbance moving through Europe will bring some additional showers this weekend into early next week. Rain may occur for some lucky areas, but will not be the widespread heavy rain that the region needs. Temperatures continue to be warm and cause drought and stress.

 

The player sheet for Aug. 1 had funds: net buyers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 3,000 corn, buyers of 3,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and sellers of 1,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 132,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in the 2024/25 marketing year that begins Sept. 1, 2024.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 105,650 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 119,145 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia, in a regular tender which closed on Thursday.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog issued an international tender to buy about 320,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

TODAY

US Sold 1.01M Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 879K of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending July 25.

• Soybean sales rose to 1,009k tons vs 918k in the previous week
• Corn sales fell to 879k tons vs 1,077k in the previous week
• All wheat sales fell to 287k tons vs 309k in the previous week

 

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending July 25, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: Unknown Buyers with 379k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 313k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Indonesia with 77k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending July 25, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 12.8k tons of the 31.5k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

 

US Soybean Crushings at 184M Bushels in June: USDA

USDA releases monthly oilseed report on website.

• Crushing 5.2% higher than same period last year
• Crude oil production 5.2% higher than same period last year
• Crude and once-refined oil stocks down 3.5% y/y

 

US Corn Used for Ethanol at 442.3M Bu in June

The following is a summary of US corn consumption for fuel and other products, according to the USDA.

• Corn for ethanol was 0.1% higher than in June 2023
• DDGS production rose to 1.794m tons

 

Argentine Corn, Wheat Crop Estimates Aug. 1: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• Corn production estimate maintained at 46.5m tons
• Wheat planting is fully complete

 

US Corn Yield Seen at Record 182.3 Bushels, Above USDA: StoneX

Corn production is projected to be 15.207 billion bushels, according to a survey Thursday for the 2024-25 season from the brokerage firm.

• That’s above US Department of Agriculture’s estimate of 181 bushels per acre and output of 15.1 billion
• US soybean yields projected at 52.6 bushels per acre and production of 4.483 billion bushels
• That’s below USDA estimate of 52 bushels per acre and production of 4.435 billion

 

Brazil 2024-25 Soy Crop Seen at Record 165M Tons: StoneX

Soybean exports seen up 11% YoY to 102m metric tons, StoneX says in report.

• Soybean acreage seen up 0.8% to 46m hectares
• Planted area estimated at 46.5 million hectares, or 0.8% higher
• Domestic demand seen rising to record 60m metric tons amid increased demand for biofuel feedstock
• Stock-to-use ratio seen at 4.3% in 2024-25, up from 2.1%

 

French Corn Conditions Worsen in Week to July 29: AgriMer

The amount of France’s corn crop rated in good or very good condition fell by 3 percentage points in the week to July 29, according to data from FranceAgriMer.

• Soft-wheat ratings were steady
• NOTE: Excessive rainfall has limited harvesting, planting and hurt crop conditions this year

 

Indonesia 1H Biodiesel Consumption at 6.12M KL: Minister

Indonesia’s palm-based biodiesel consumption from January to June was at 6.12M kiloliters, according to the energy and mineral resources ministry.

• Govt set max distribution quota at 13.4M KL for B35 biodiesel mandate in 2024
• B40 biodiesel program is expected to run next year, says Energy Minister Arifin Tasrif
• NOTE: The B35 program mandated 35% of palm-based biodiesel to be mixed in gasoil sold in domestic market

 

Brazil 2024 chicken production and exports set to rise

Chicken production in Brazil, the world’s top supplier, is expected to grow by up to 1.8% this year and reach as much as 15.1 million metric tons, meat lobby ABPA, which represents processors including JBS and BRF, said on Thursday.

Brazilian chicken exports are likewise projected to rise by as much as 2.2%, to 5.25 million tons if the most optimistic projection is confirmed, even after a recent outbreak of Newcastle disease in southern Brazil, which triggered temporary trade bans.

 

China Vice Premier calls for action to secure autumn grain harvest

China’s Vice Premier Liu Guozhong has urged local authorities to seek to minimise agricultural losses and ensure a robust autumn grain harvest, after torrential rain and floods lashed Henan, the country’s largest wheat-growing province.

During a visit to Henan, the vice premier urged authorities to take measures to promote the restoration of affected crops and guide farmers to re-plant land on which crops were destroyed.

In July, a small town in Henan was pounded by almost a year’s worth of rain in one day, as the extreme storms that battered the south this summer shift to the central and northern provinces.

The vice premier emphasized the critical need for disaster prevention and mitigation to protect the autumn grain crops and achieve a successful harvest.

He also called for enhanced efforts to promote grain and oil crop yields to bolster national food security.

Henan, known as China’s granary, produces about one-third of the country’s wheat, so a reduced harvest could lead China, the world’s largest wheat consumer, to seek additional supplies from abroad.

Although the summer wheat harvest in Henan is mostly complete, hot temperatures and rainy weather have raised concerns about the quality of stored wheat, prompting some farmers to sell their supplies.

China’s state grains stockpiler Sinograin said on Wednesday the firm and its subsidiaries will increase the level of domestic wheat storage to support farmers.

 

Bunge’s $8.2 Billion Viterra Deal Wins Conditional EU Nod

• Firms filed substantial remedies that eased EU concerns
• Would create world’s 2nd biggest agri-trading firm by revenue

Bunge Global SA’s planned $8.2 billion buyout of Viterra Inc. won European Union approval after concessions offered by the firms allayed competition concerns.

The tie-up, announced in June last year, will see Bunge buy Glencore Plc-backed Viterra in stock and cash, with the US crop trader owning about 70% of the combined entity. It would become the world’s second-biggest agricultural trading company by revenue, dominating the soybean and wheat markets.

“We had concerns that the transaction could affect the supply chains of rapeseed and sunflower seed in Central Europe, with potential ramifications across the food, feed, and biofuel industries,” Margrethe Vestager, the EU’s antitrust commissioner, said in an emailed statement.

“The divestiture of Viterra’s entire oilseeds business in Hungary and Poland will preserve competition in these markets,” she said.

That’s a much-needed victory for Bunge. The St. Louis-based trader said on Wednesday that the conclusion of the deal might still take “several months,” meaning a delay to its initial mid-year target. The company is also faced with plunging profits as it weathers a downturn in grain markets.

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 659k tons in the week ending July 27 from 317k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 119.8% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 151.9% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $12.53 per short ton, an increase of $0.36 from the previous week

 

US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending July 30: USDA

The following shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending July 30, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• The percent of durum wheat crops experiencing moderate to intense drought rose 12 percentage points from the previous week to 25%
• Corn and soybean areas both rose by a point to 5%

 

 

 

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