Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is near $81. US Presidential debate Thursday, US weekly export sales Thursday and USDA acreage and stocks report Friday.
SN is near 11.76. SN-SU has rallied to +60. SMN-SMU is near new high and +26. Heavy NW US Midwest rains offers support. Floods slowing US crush. US soymeal export commit is record high. Trade est US soybean acres near 86.75 million vs 86.51 in March. Trade also est June 1 stocks at 962 vs 796 ly with most stocks off farm. Dalian soybean futures were lower, soymeal was higher and palmoil and soyoil were lower.
CN is near 4.27. AI trading machines continue to sell weakness. Corn futures dropped on increase export competition from South America starting in July. Trade afraid to add weather premium despite talk of lower Brazil and Argentina crop and continue dryness in Mexico and S Midwest. N Midwest is wet. Trade est US corn acres near 90.35 million vs 90.03 in March. Trade also est June 1 stocks at 4,873 vs 4,103 ly with most stocks on farm. US domestic ethanol margins are positive. US weather may be slowing production. Dalian corn futures were higher and 8 month high.
WN is near 5.42. Global harvest pressure has weighed on futures. EU, Ukraine and Russia are lowering export prices to find demand also offered resistance to futures. Egypt bought 440 mt wheat mostly from East EU and Russia. Trade est US wheat acres near 47.65 million vs 47.49 in March. Trade also est June 1 stocks at 684 vs 570 ly with most stocks off farm.
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