Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. Stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is lower. Coffee, cocoa and cotton are lower.
SU is near 10.57. Since Monday liquidation of Trump trade and net buying in soybeans, soybean futures have trade lower. Current US Midwest weather is favorable for the crop. Wednesday mid-day GFS model added Midwest rains early next week. There was some talk that China may have bought Brazil soybeans and a few US cargoes. Lower Brazil Real currency offered resistance to soybean prices. Weekly US old crop soybean sales are est at 100-400 mt vs 228 last week and new crop 500-900 mt vs 507 last week. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were sharply lower.
CU is near 4.04. Current US Midwest weather is favorable for the crop. Wednesday mid day GFS model added Midwest rains early next week. Weekly US old crop corn sales are est at 200-700 mt vs 437 last week and new crop 100-600 mt vs 485 last week. Dalian corn futures were sharply lower and near 6 month lows. Lower China domestic corn prices may be slowing new imports. Still, World corn stocks, less China are only 99 mmt. Any drop in production could support prices. Market carry suggest US supply is greater than demand.
WU is near 5.44. Second day of annual US spring wheat crop tour found record high wheat yields in NC and NW district. Average first day yield was 53.7 vs 45.7 ly. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 300-625 mt vs 578 last week. Market carry suggest US supply is greater than demand. Tightening global stocks offers support. Slow import demand and lower Russia prices offers equal resistance.
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