Written Commentary
CORN
Prices plunged to multiyear lows across all contracts as speculative traders continue to load back up on the short side of the market. Prices continue to seek out better export demand while expectations build for this year’s production. Next support for July-24 is at the March low of $3.99 ¾ on the weekly chart. Yesterday Iowa’s Utility Board approved Summit Carbon Solutions proposed plan to build a pipeline thru 29 counties in the state to capture and store carbon emissions from ethanol plants. Approval is still pending in both SD and ND. Perhaps a step in the right direction in allowing corn based ethanol’s better access to SAF tax credits. SCS still hopes to have project up and running by early 2026. Ethanol production slipped to 1,043 tbd LW, down from 1,057 tbd the previous week and down 1% from YA. Production was below expectations and below the pace needed to reach the USDA corn usage forecast of 5.450 bil. bu. There was 104.5 mil. bu. of corn used in the production process, or 14.95 mil. bu. per day, below the 15.3 mbd needed to reach the USDA.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mixed with beans steady to down $.05, meal was $4-$5 lower, while oil was up 70-80. Heavy rains overnight from southern IA and eastern NE south thru MO and western IL. Widespread rains are expected across much of the nation’s midsection thru the upcoming weekend, heaviest totals expected for eastern NE, southern IA into northern IL. Lighter amounts for flooded areas in Southern MN, NW IA and SE SD. The above normal temperature and above normal precip trend is expected to last into the first week of July for much of the Midwest. Hot/dry for the SE. Look for no deliveries against July beans or meal, while heavy deliveries are expected for oil with 2,589 contracts registered for delivery. USDA data showed farmers held 933 mil. bu. in March, a 4 year high. Stats Canada at 7:30 AM tomorrow is expected to show canola acres at 21.5 mil. up slightly from 21.4 forecast in March, however down from 22.1 mil. YA. Brazil is expected to ship 14.5 mmt of beans in June, while down from the previous forecast of 14.9 mmt, it’s still a record high for the month.
WHEAT
Prices were mixed with very little change in Chicago and MGEX. KC held on to close $.03-$.04 higher. Reports that Brazil was seeking 2-4 cargoes of US HRW for late summer shipment provided a boost to KC futures. July-24 Chicago held above its contract low in March at $5.37 ¾ by a ¼ cent. Look for moderate to heavy, 500-1,000 contracts, deliveries against CGO July. Registrations rest at 1,479 contracts. Stats Canada is expected to show all wheat acres at 27.2 mil., up from 27 mil. in March which was also the acres planted in 2023. Russia exporters no longer appear to be operating with a price floor with their $227/mt FOB sale price to Egypt yesterday. SovEcon lowered their 24/25 Ukraine production forecast 1.2 mmt to 20.4 mmt, still above the USDA est. of 19.5 mmt. After a slow start both Argentine and Brazilian wheat plantings have caught up with their normal pace. My June 1st stocks est. at 705 mil. bu. is the highest in the range of est. however only 20 mil. above the average trade guess. Algeria is believed to have bought 130-150k mt of milling wheat between $248-$250/mt CF.
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