Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.02-$.03 higher today while establishing an inside trading session. Next resistance for Sept-24 is the July high at $4.13 ¾. Dec-24 resistance is at $4.26 ½. Prices held up a bit better into today’s close than the last 2 sessions, however still settled $.02-$.03 off session highs. Little change in this week’s US drought monitor. US corn acres in drought fell 1% this past week to only 4%, compared to 59% YA. Exports at 42 mil. bu. (13 mil. – 23/24 MY, 29 – 24/25) were in line with expectations. Old crop sales are up 37% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 34%. Noted buyers were Japan with 5 mil. old crop and 10 mil. new crop along with Mexico with 4 mil. old crop and 7 mil. new. New crop sales continue to pick up reaching 192 mil. matching the YA level. The EU lowered their corn production forecast to 62.9 mmt down from 64.8 mmt last month vs. the USDA est. of 64 mmt.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mostly higher with beans up $.07-$.15, meal was $8-$9 higher while oil lagged down 20 in spot Aug-24 to slightly higher in deferred contracts. New crop Nov-24 gained on August beans today. Aug-24 oil rejected trade below its 50 day MA at 45.43, recovering back near the 46.00 level. Near term resistance at this week’s high 47.31. Aug-24 meal jumped out to a 2 week high and back above the 100 day MA resistance on strong export sales. Next resistance is the 50 day MA at $353.40. Searing heat in the Northern plains yesterday with 105-109 readings in Montana. Some triple digit temperatures crept into the western Dakota’s. By tomorrow temps will cool of a bit. By the end of the upcoming weekend upper 90’s and low 100’s will be widespread in the Southern plains and far WCB. Little to no rain in this region will further stress unirrigated row crops and livestock. Much above normal temperatures will expand across the continental US and is expected to last thru the first full week of August. Near term rainfall to favor the Gulf coast and SE. Scattered rains will likely impact the central and ECB next week as systems ride around the high pressure ridge anchored in the southern plains. US soybean acres in drought fell 1% this past week to only 4%, compared to 53% YA. Spot board crush margins jumped $.12 today to $1.63 ½ bu. with bean oil PV falling to 39.4%. Bean exports at 34 mil. bu. (3 mil. – 23/24 MY, 31 – 24/25) were in line with expectations. Old crop commitments at 1.665 bil. are down 14% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 15%. New crop commitments at 107 mil. are still the lowest in over a decade however continue to narrow the gap. The USDA also announced the sale of 264k mt (9.7 mil. bu.) of new crop to an unknown buyer. Soybean meal sales were huge at 779k tons (258k – 23/24 MY, 521k – 24/25) Old crop commitments are up 11% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. Soybean oil sales at 4k tons (7k – 23/24, -3k – 24/25) were disappointing. Old crop commitments are up 66% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 46%.
WHEAT
The weakling in the agricultural space today as prices were down $.05-$.09 across all 3 classes. Results from this week’s spring wheat crop tour continue to support the USDA’s record wheat yield forecast of 54 bpa for ND. With 89% of the overall crop headed as of this past Sunday, the market senses this week’s extreme heat and net drying will do little to hold back yield potential. Wheat exports at 11 mil. bu. were below expectations. YTD commitments at 295 mil. are up 48% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 17%. Shipments are up 19%. By class YTD commitments vs. the USDA forecast HRW up 85% vs. USDA up 79%, SRW down 18% vs. down 30%, HRS up 55% vs. up 11% and white up 91% vs. up 22%. Spring wheat areas in drought increased 3% to 15% vs. 43% YA. Winter wheat areas in drought held steady at 24%.
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