Written Commentary
CORN
Prices jumped $.10-$.11 today however held below last week’s high of $4.03 in Sept and $4.16 in Dec-24. US forecasts are less favorable given the lack of moisture across much of the nation’s midsection the last week of July combined with a record or near record speculative short position in soybeans and corn. The USDA announced the sale of 133k mt (5 mil. bu.) of new crop corn to Mexico. Export inspections at 38 mil. bu. were in line with expectations however below the pace needed to reach the USDA export forecast of 2.225 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 1.794 bil. are up 33% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 34%. Last week money managers were net buyers of nearly 10,600 contracts of corn reducing their net short position to 343k, still the 2nd largest ever reported. AgRural estimates 2nd crop corn harvest in Brazil’s CS region has reached 83% vs. only 47% YA.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was higher across the board today led by new crop contracts. Beans were up $.20-$.32, meal was $7-$12 higher, while oil was up 45-90. Aug-24 soybeans inverse over Nov-24 slipped $.12 to $.49 bu. Today’s strong close enabled November soybeans to close above LW’s high of $10.64. Seemingly not much resistance until $11.00. Resistance for Aug-24 meal is at its 100 day MA at $349.70. Inside trade for Aug-24 oil. Weekend rains were scattered in the WCB while much of the ECB remained dry with seasonal temperatures. Mild temperatures are expected to continue until mid-week when heat begins to build across the WCB and plain states. Above normal temperatures are expected to expand across the central and ECB by next weekend. Continued heat and dryness in the Canadian prairies has lifted canola prices to their highest level in nearly 2 months. Export inspections at 12 mil. bu. were in line with expectations however below the pace needed to reach the USDA export forecast of 1.70 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 1.556 bil. are down 16% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 15%. Last week MM’s were net sellers of 13k beans extending their net short position to a record 186k contracts. MM’s sold nearly 34k contracts of meal cutting their long position to only 27k contracts, the smallest in 3 months. US exports to China in June totaled 1.31 mmt, quadrupling the total from June-23 however still only made up 12% of their total imports of 11.1 mmt.
WHEAT
Prices wound up closing higher across all 3 classes with MGEX leading the way up $.10-$.13, Chicago was $.05 higher, while KC was up $.01-$.02. MGEX Sept-24 premium to Chicago Sept-24 has gained another $.08 to $.75 bu. a 2 ½ month high. High/dry conditions across the northern US plains this week threaten later maturing spring wheat crop potential. Cooler temperatures are expected for Ukraine, southern Russia and Kazakhstan this week however forecasted rains are not likely to put much of a dent in the moisture deficits. Weekend rains in Argentina were disappointing for their developing wheat crop. Inside trade for KC and CGO Sept. contracts. Sept-24 MGEX peaking just above $6.25. Export inspections at 9 mil. bu. were below expectations and below the pace needed to reach the USDA export forecast of 825 mil. bu. YTD inspections at 95 mil. are up 20% vs. the USDA forecast of up 16%. Last week MM’s were net sellers of nearly 7k contracts of CGO, 3k KC and 1,600 MGEX extending their combined short position in wheat to 145k contracts, the largest in 3 months. IKAR reports Russian wheat prices for export at $219/mt at the end of last week, unchanged from the previous week. SovEcon estimates Russia exported 710k mt of grain LW, up from 600k the previous week with 660k mt of this being wheat.
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