Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.03-$.04 higher in choppy 2 sided trade. Conab raised their Brazilian production forecast 1.7 mmt to 115.86 mmt, still below the USDA est. of 122 mmt however in line with expectations. Still no updates from the BAGE. Exports at 26 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations. Old crop commitments at 2.137 bil. still up 37% from YA vs. the USDA forecast up 29%. Columbia, Japan and Mexico all bought 7-8 mil. bu. of old crop while nearly all of the new crop sales were to Mexico. New crop commitments at 143 mil. bu. are a 5 year low. Yields have been cut 4 times in the past 20 years, most recently last year when down 4 bpa.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex turned mostly higher with beans steady to up $.03. Meal was up $3 in spot Aug to down $1 in deferred contracts, while oil was up 60-80. Both Aug-24 and Sept-24 beans established new contract lows at midday. Oil rebounded after 3 straight lower closes. For now no immediate concern with the above normal temperatures over the next week as today’s updated drought monitor continues to show historically low levels of drought stress across the Midwest. Temperatures are expected to roll back to normal reading by middle of next week, at least for the northern half of the nation’s midsection. Conab kept their Brazilian production virtually unchanged at 147.34 mmt, vs. the USDA est. in June at 153 mmt. Soybean exports at 15 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations. Old crop commitments at 1.653 bil. are down 14% from YA in line with the USDA. New crop commitments at only 58 mil. are the lowest in well over a decade. Finally starting to see some new crop business to China with a meager 10k tons last week while yesterday’s announced sale of 132k ton to show up in next Thursday’s weekly report. Soybean meal sales were weak. Old crop commitments are up 12% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. Soybean oil sales at 9k tons were in line with expectations. YTD commitments are up 59% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 19%. No change expected in beans yields, holding steady at 52 bpa. Here as well, no July increases in over 20 years.
WHEAT
Prices were higher across all 3 classes with KC up $.16-$.18 while Chicago and MGEX were $.08-$.10 better. Prices were able to rebound from their oversold condition, perhaps a sign that much of the bearish supply news is already discounted by the recent selloff as US winter wheat harvest hits the home stretch. Sept-24 Chicago rejected trade below $5.60 yesterday, trading thru yesterday’s highs today. Next resistance is at this month’s high of $5.92 ¼. Resistance for KC Sept-24 is just above $6.00. Japan’s Ag. Ministry reportedly bought just over 107k mt of Aussie, Canadian and US milling wheat. Strategie Grains raised their EU soft wheat production est. .5 mmt to 122.3 mmt. Conab lowered their Brazilian production forecast slightly to 8.956 mmt, vs. the USDA est. of 9.5 mmt. Exports at 9 mil. bu. were below expectations. YTD commitments are up 42% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 11%.
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