Written Commentary
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are higher across the board.
Mortgage applications in the week ending August 16 declined 10.1%.
At 9:00 central time the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release revised data on U.S. job growth for the year ending March 2024. Some economists believe the number of jobs added could be revised down by 600,000 or more.
The August Atlanta Federal Reserve business inflation expectations report will be released at 9:00. In July the inflation rate was 2.4%.
The minutes from the July 31 Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be released at 1:00.
The main event this week will be Friday’s Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s speech at the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. It is likely that Powell will indicate the Fed is ready to lower its fed funds rate at its September 18 meeting.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index declined to its lowest level since January in the overnight trade.
The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected to lower key interest rates this year.
Japan’s exports increased more than expected in July. Exports were up 10.3% in July from a year earlier, compared with June’s 5.4% increase and an 8.1% advance that was predicted by economists.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures are higher across the board.
The U.S. Treasury will auction 20-year bonds today.
There is a 68% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its that funds rate by 25 basis points at its September 18 meeting, and there is a 32% probability that the FOMC will reduce its key interest rate by 50 basis points in September.
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