Global Ag News for June 25.24

TOP HEADLINES

Biden Approves Disaster Declaration For State of Iowa

US President Joe Biden issued a major disaster declaration for Iowa and ordered federal aid to supplement recovery efforts in the areas affected by severe storms that started on June 16, according to a White House statement.

• Federal funding will be available to affected individuals in the counties of Clay, Emmet, Lyon, Plymouth, and Sioux
• Assistance can include grants for temporary housing and home repairs as well as low-cost loans to cover uninsured property losses
• Damage assessments are continuing in other areas; additional forms of assistance may be designated after the assessments

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 3/4 in SRW, down 1 1/4 in HRW, up 2 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 4 1/4; Soybeans down 6 3/4; Soymeal down $2.20; Soyoil down 0.23.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 6 1/2 in SRW, down 3/4 in HRW, down 2 in HRS; Corn is down 5 3/4; Soybeans up 4; Soymeal up $3.50; Soyoil down 0.77.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 130 1/4 in SRW, down 137 in HRW, down 134 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 19 1/2; Soybeans down 60 3/4; Soymeal down $14.50; Soyoil down 2.45.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 12.3% in SRW, down 9.4% in HRW, down 15.8% in HRS; Corn is down 8.9%; Soybeans down 9.1%; Soymeal down 3.4%; Soyoil down 9.4%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans up 23 yuan; Soymeal down 4; Soyoil down 78; Palm oil down 70; Corn up 10 — Malaysian Palm is down 41. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 41 ringgit (-1.05%) at 3857.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,479 SRW Wheat contracts; 39 Oats; 747 Corn; 218 Soybeans; 2,589 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 24 were: SRW Wheat down 1,428 contracts, HRW Wheat up 5,704, Corn down 26,306, Soybeans down 12,239, Soymeal down 3,372, Soyoil down 1,249.

 

Northern Plains:  Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Midwest: West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday. East: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near normal Thursday, above normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

The player sheet for 6/24 had funds: net sellers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 13,000 corn, sellers of 6,000 soybeans, buyers of 4,000 soymeal, and sellers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYMEAL SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 228,000 metric tons of U.S. soymeal to the Philippines for delivery in the 2024/25 marketing year that begins Oct. 1, 2024.
• SOYOIL TENDER CANCELED: Egypt canceled an international soyoil import tender due to “unsuitability of prices”, the country’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) said. Egypt bought 25,000 metric tons of soyoil on the local market, GASC added.
• CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) Busan section in South Korea purchased around 66,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from either South America or South Africa in a private deal late on Friday
• WHEAT TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said it was seeking wheat in an international tender for arrival Aug. 21 to 31 and/or Sept. 1 to Sept. 10. GASC said in a statement traders should submit bids for payment at sight using funding from the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation. The deadline for offers is June 25.
• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat for shipment to two ports only.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.118m Tons of Corn for Export, 342k of Soybeans

In week ending June 20, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Corn: 1,118k tons vs 1,381k the previous wk, 551k a yr ago
• Wheat: 343k tons vs 410k the previous wk, 205k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 342k tons vs 341k the previous wk, 146k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: June 20

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending June 20 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Egypt-bound shipments made up 113k tons of the 342k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, and also led in wheat

 

Brazil C-S Winter Corn Harvest 34% Done: Agrural

Compares with 21% a week earlier and 9% a year before, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

• That’s the fastest pace since 2013, when AgRural started its weekly data survey
• Mato Grosso and Parana keep leading the works among Center-South states

 

Brazil C-S Winter Corn Harvest 20.5% Done as of June 21: Safras

That compares with 7.6% a year earlier, and a five-year average of 6%, according to a report from consulting firm Safras & Mercado.

• Harvest is 16.9% completed in Parana area, 27.5% in Mato Grosso and 19.1% in Goias

 

India buys record amount of sunoil as Ukraine-Russia fight for market share cuts price

Indians bought a record 500,000 metric tons of sunflower oil for June delivery, as competition between leading suppliers Russia and Ukraine made it cheaper than soyoil and palm oil, two leading buyers and a customs official told Reuters.

Higher sunflower oil purchases by the world’s biggest importer of vegetable oils will help to reduce sunflower oil inventories in the Black Sea region and lift sunoil prices.

A leading buyer who declined to be named said sunoil was trading at a discount to soyoil and even palm oil, which was tempting Indian buyers especially given robust demand in southern states.

A few weeks ago, crude sunoil was available at $940 a metric ton, including cost, insurance and freight (CIF), in India for June delivery, while soyoil and palm oil were offered around $1,015 and $950 a ton, respectively, dealers said.

Sunoil usually holds a premium of more than $100 per ton over soyoil and palm oil, Rajesh Patel, managing partner at edible oil trader and broker GGN Research, said.

Russia and Ukraine, as well as another big supplier Argentina, were aggressively competing and offered sunoil at a lower price than other oils, another buyer based in Hyderabad said. He has reduced palm oil and soyoil purchases to make space for sunoil.

The currencies of Russia and Ukraine have depreciated since the war started in February 2022, allowing them to offer sunflower oil at competitive prices in dollar terms, the buyer said.

 

Palm Oil Prices Ease in 2Q, Likely to Weaken Further, Fitch Says

Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil prices are expected to weaken from 2H on higher global vegetable oil supply, Fitch said in a statement.

• Spot prices have weakened after exceeding $950/t in early April and Fitch assumes they will average $775/t in 2024
• Malaysia’s CPO output in the first 5 months was up 15% y/y and the highest since 2019
• A strong La Nina is a key upside risk for prices, as it could impair production of various vegetable oil crops across the world

 

Optimism Grows for Argentina Crops on Weakening La Niña: Rosario

As forecasts for La Niña, a climate pattern due to form in September, indicate it will be weaker than initially thought, “there’s optimism” for Argentina’s 2024-25 crop season, the Rosario Board of Trade said in a report.

NOTE: Argentine farmers are currently planting 2024-25 wheat; 2024-25 soy and corn are mainly planted in 4Q

 

Weaker La Niña forecast is ‘good news’ for Argentina’s soy, corn crops

A new forecast for a more moderate La Niña in coming months is good news for Argentina’s soy and corn, with the crops now likely to receive more rain than previously expected, the Rosario Grains Exchange said on Monday.

The forecasts for La Niña – which in Argentina causes drier weather – in the second half of the year had raised alarm among farmers in the country, one of the world’s top soy and corn exporters.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), however, recently cut its estimated intensity of La Niña, which the Rosario exchange on Monday called a relief.

Argentina suffered dramatic crop losses last year due to a historic drought also caused by La Niña.

“This is good news for rainfall in Argentina during the (Southern Hemisphere’s) spring and summer period,” the exchange said.

La Niña is set to begin in September and last through March, according to the NOAA, coinciding with the warmest months of the year and when the planting and growth of most of the soy and corn crops occur.

Farmers are wrapping up the 2023/24 soybean harvest, which the Rosario exchange estimates at 50 million metric tons. Harvesting is also under way on the 2023/24 corn crop, which the exchange forecasts at 47.5 million tons.

 

Adverse Summer Weather in Europe to Lower Wheat Yields: MARS

The forecast for the soft-wheat yield is now at the five year average with downward revisions for Italy, Romania and The Netherlands, the European Union’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit said Monday in a report.

• Wetter weather has slowed summer planting in regions such as western Germany, north-eastern France and northern Italy, delaying sowing by as much as two months
• A water deficit in parts of Hungary, Romania, Ukraine and Russia are set to hit development of winter crops
• Durum wheat yields saw the biggest cut due to issues in France and Italy
• Heat waves over Spain, where overall yield expectations are positive, are threatening the winter crop due to depleted water

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Prices are firm; producers focus on crops

Wheat prices continue firm in the domestic market, operating at levels above those verified in the same period last year. Values are firm due to low stocks in Brazil, especially of the high-quality product, and to the higher import parity. Moreover, the area of the new season, which is being planted now, may be smaller than the previous, leading the supply to be dependent on weather conditions and on its impacts on productivity.

Producers in Brazil are focused on crop practices and/or on the planting, mainly in Rio Grande do Sul, where activities have started later this year. According to Emater/RS, crop activities advanced last week, but rains interrupted them in some cases.

PRICES – While producers are focused on crop activities, purchasers say they have stocks and are unwilling to buy high volumes. In this scenario, liquidity remains low in the Brazilian market.

According to data from Cepea, between June 14 and 21, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) moved up 0.26% in Paraná, 1.04% in Rio Grande do Sul and 3.27% in Santa Catarina. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values dropped 1.87% in Paraná and 0.78% in São Paulo. However, values upped 1.55% in Rio Grande do Sul and 0.89% in Santa Catarina. Dollar quotations rose 1.26% against Real in the same period, at BRL 5.445 on June 21.

 

Milei Rejects Devaluation

In Argentina, President Javier Milei said Monday morning in a radio interview that lifting currency controls depends on cleaning up the central bank’s balance sheet and that a peso devaluation is not a solution. The gap between the parallel exchange rate and the official exchange rate is 44%.

 

US Egg Production Fell 2% in May From Year Ago: USDA

The US produced 9.1b eggs in May vs 9.29b in the same period a year ago, according to a report from the USDA.

• Output of table eggs fell 2.1% y/y to 7.81b
• Hatching eggs down 1.6% to 1.3b

 

US Poultry Slaughter Fell 2.2% Y/y in May: USDA

Slaughter fell to 5.92 billion pounds, according to the USDA’s monthly poultry slaughter report released on the agency’s website.

• Chicken live weight fell 1.3% in May from year ago
• Chickens condemned post-mortem down 4.4% y/y
  • Condemned ante-mortem down 3.7% y/y

 

Farmers Catch Up, Extending Fertilizer-Price Strength

Global fertilizer demand could grow by 3.1% in 2024, exceeding last year’s decadal record, as farmers globally absorb the lower-cost material in a bid to catch up after years of pullback. Record demand growth is driven primarily by potash, as supply loosens from Western sanctioned Russia and Belarus. Still, potash pricing is missing out on the demand-fueled rally as inventory builds and capacity-expansion projects resume. The long-term potash contracts are set to fall 10% to $280 per metric ton (mt) cost-and-freight. Closely linked to Chinese trade policy, nitrogen and phosphate demand is set to rebound, at a lesser pace than potash, as an on-again/off-again export policy limits trade.

 

China Issues Highest Rainstorm Warning Alert for Some Regions

China Meteorological Administration issues a red alert for rainstorm at 10am local time, according to a statement on its website.

• Heavy to torrential rainfall is expected in parts of southeastern Hubei, northern Hunan, northern Jiangxi, western Zhejiang from Monday to Thursday

 

 

 

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