Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were down $.06 – $.07 closing near session lows as spreads weaken. July-24 held support just above its 100 day MA at $4.53 ¾. Support for Dec-24 is at the 50 day MA at $4.76 ¼. Pressure continues to stem from no more than routine demand and non-threatening weather across the nation’s midsection. Corn plantings advanced 13% to 83% complete, in line with expectations and just ahead of the 5-year Ave. at 82%. Despite emergence reaching 58%, matching the 5-year Ave., no full condition report this week. Big progress was made across the eastern corn belt and Northern plains with OH advancing 33%, MI 25%, and 24% in ND. Based off March planting intentions and yesterday’s progress report their remains 2.18 mil. acres left to plant in IL, 1.54 mil. in IA, 1.38 in IN, 1.1 mil. in NE and just below 1 mil. each in MN, SD, and ND. Here is a brief summary of states reporting conditions: KY – 72% G/E, TN – 66%, TX – 63%, KS – 61%, and MO – 59%. Yesterday China approved 2 varieties of GM corn grown in Argentina likely signaling imports from the SA country are imminent. China approved corn imports from Argentina YA, however due to reduced production from last year’s drought had so far not imported their corn. Tomorrow’ EIA report is expected to show ethanol production between 1,000 – 1,024 tbd, vs. 1,019 tbd the previous week. The weekly export sales report delayed until Friday due to Monday’s Memorial Day Holiday.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed with beans down $.13 – $.16 with spreads a bit softer, meal was $7 – $8 lower, while oil was up 35. MA support for July-24 beans is just above the $12 level with the 100 day at $12.05 and 50 day at $12.02 ¾. After rejecting trade above $390 yesterday, July-24 meal has quickly pulled back to the lower end of its $365 – $390 range. July-24 oil has MA resistance just above $.46 lb. Rainfall thru this weekend to favor the Southern US plains and WCB with much lighter amounts in the Central and ECB. Temperatures are expected to be cooler than normal the next few days before gradually warming to slightly above normal by this weekend. A drier outlook is expected across Brazil and Argentina for the next week to 10 days, helpful for harvest activities. Soybean plantings at 68% were in line with expectations. Progress remains below YA pace of 78% and just ahead of the 5-year Ave. of 63%. 39% of the crop has emerged, vs. 50% YA and 5-year Ave. of 36%. Weak export demand along with a favorable US forecast continues to weigh on market sentiment. Spot board crush margins rebounded to $1.03 bu., the highest since early Jan-24. Will get a monthly update on biodiesel and renewable diesel production along with feedstock usage data on Friday.
WHEAT
Prices were lower across all 3 classes with KC down $.11, while Chicago and MGEX were $.05 – $.07 lower. Chicago July-24 held above key support at $6.82 ½. Support for July-24 KC is at $7.08. Rains have begun to fall in the Southern plains, including SW KN along with the TX and OK panhandles, likely too late to benefit HRW wheat however beneficial for summer row crops. Today’s forecast for Southern Russian and surrounding areas is a bit less threatening than yesterday as spotty showers and some cloud cover will likely keep temperatures from reaching extremes. Winter wheat conditions slipped 1% to 48% G/E in line with expectations. Despite the modest decline, overall ratings match the highest since 2021. Ratings dropped 7% in IL, 9% in MO whiling improving 9% in MT. Composite ratings declined in 9 states, improved in 7, while holding steady in 2. 77% of the crop is headed, vs. LW and 5-year Ave. of 69%. Crop conditions in Kansas remain historically average. WW harvest is beginning to roll in the deep south with TX at 21%, LA 20%, while OK and AL are at 12%. Spring wheat plantings advanced to 79%, well ahead of YA pace of 57% and the 5-year Ave. of 48%. Emergence is at 61%, vs. 50% YA and 5-year Ave. of 52%. Officials in India expect the Govt. will remove its 40% tariff on wheat next month, opening the door for imports from Russia in order to rebuild stockpiles. This would be their first imports in 6 years.
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