Written Commentary
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index gapped under a trendline, extending its recent decline due to comments from Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki when he warned speculators that are selling the yen and buying U.S. dollars. He said Japan is ready to take more and bigger measures in order to have a stable exchange rate.
Sentiment among German businesses did not improve this month, according to a survey. The Ifo business-climate index remained steady at 89.3 in May when analysts had anticipated an improvement.
The monthly retail sales balance from the Confederation of British Industry, which measures sales compared to the prior year, improved to +8 in May 2024 from -44 in April, surpassing market estimates of -24.
Japanese corporate services prices in April increased at their fastest pace since early 2015, according to Bank of Japan data. The Corporate Services Price Index advanced 2.8% year-on-year in April, following a 2.4% increase in the previous month.
Retail sales in Australia edged up 0.1% month-on-month in April 2024, which compares with market forecasts of a 0.2% increase.
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are mostly higher.
The 9:00 central time May consumer confidence index is expected to be 95.3.
The 9:30 May Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing survey is anticipated to be -14.4.
The fundamentals and technicals remain supportive.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Neel Kashkari of the Federal Reserve recently said he wants to see “many more months” of positive inflation data before an interest rate reduction.
The U.S. Treasury will auction two-year and five-year notes.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 51% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at its September 18 meeting.
Despite the newly more hawkish Federal Reserve, the fundamentals and technicals have improved for the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond futures.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
