Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is down. CN is unch. WN is up. KWN is up. MWN is up. Stocks, US Dollar and Crude are higher on bullish US inflation data.
SN is near 12.20. Dalian soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were higher. Higher Conab Brazil soybean crop est offered resistance. Heavy rains though continue in S Brazil… Argentina harvest is 23 pct and near last years pace. Crop is est at 46.5 mmt vs USDA 53. US April NOPA soybean crush was only 166 mil bu vs 196.4 in March and 173.2 lly. Soyoil stocks were 1,755 mil lbs vs 1,851 in March and 1,957 in April, 2023. Weekly US soybean export sales est at 300-550 mt vs 428 last week. Demand bears are out in full force at annual Graincom conference in Geneva Switzerland due to concern about demand. US soybean futures open interest has dropped from a high in mid-April 143,000 contracts.
CN is near 4.62. Dalian corn futures were higher. Weekly US ethanol production was up 3 pct vs last week and up 1 pct vs ly . Weekly US corn export sales are est at 700-1,050 mt vs 889 last week. Conab corn est failed to attract new buying. Argentina harvest is 48 pct done. More insect damage being reported. Nearly 15 mmt drop in South America supply could increase demand for US exports. Showers could slow east and south US corn plantings. US corn futures open interest dropped from a high in mid-April high 220,000 contracts to recent low. Corn OI has since increased 100,000 contracts.
WN is near 6.72. KWN is near 6.84. Wax off wax on. Wheat futures are trying to decide if WN needs to trade over 7.00 on Russia and EU winter wheat crop worries or if demand is soft enough to pull futures lower. Some showers are forecasted for parts of S Russia next week before a ridge of high pressure reforms. It continues to rain in west EU. On first day of annual KS Wheat tour north KS wheat yields were est at 49.9 bu vs 35.0 ly. On Second day SW KS Yields were est at 42 vs 37 ly. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 300-600 mt vs 405 last week. Cooler US inflation could help domestic US wheat demand. US Chicago wheat futures open interest dropped from an early April high 60,000. Wheat OI has since increased 30,000 contracts
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