Global Ag News for May 14.24

TOP HEADLINES

Flood of Chinese Used Cooking Oil Spurs Call to Boost US Tariffs

• Soybean group says imports from China are threat to US growers
• Biden to increase levies on range of China products this week

As President Joe Biden prepares a new wave of tariffs against China, a US soybean trade group is pushing for higher levies on Chinese used cooking oil that it says is undercutting American crops used for biofuels.

A group that represents the biggest US soybean processors, including Cargill Inc., Bunge Global SA and Archer-Daniels-Midland Co., wants the levies to be higher than the current 15.5% rate, according to a notice the National Oilseed Processors Association, or NOPA, sent to its members over the weekend that was seen by Bloomberg.

NOPA Chief Executive Officer Kailee Tkacz Buller said the memo was sent in response to rumors of possible additional tariffs being applied on used cooking oil. NOPA members support a boost on par with other clean energy sources, such as electric vehicles and solar, to level the playing field, Buller said in an email.

Soybean crushers worry a flood of used cooking oil imports from China is weakening demand for US crop-based ingredients that can be used to make renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel. There’s also widespread, unconfirmed speculation the used oil from Asia may not be authentic and instead is mixed with fresh vegetable oils, such as palm, potentially distorting commodity values and undermining US biofuel laws.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1/4 in SRW, up 1 1/2 in HRW, down 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/2; Soybeans down 5; Soymeal up $0.80; Soyoil down 0.56.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 23 1/4 in SRW, up 28 1/4 in HRW, up 18 in HRS; Corn is up 3 1/4; Soybeans down 4 1/2; Soymeal down $4.60; Soyoil up 0.15.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 83 1/2 in SRW, up 66 1/4 in HRW, up 33 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 26 1/4; Soybeans up 51 1/2; Soymeal up $15.40; Soyoil up 1.58.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 6.7% in SRW, up 12.8% in HRW, up 3.0% in HRS; Corn is down 2.2%; Soybeans down 6.8%; Soymeal down 6.3%; Soyoil down 6.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 24) Soybeans up 40 yuan; Soymeal up 17; Soyoil up 106; Palm oil up 144; Corn up 6 — Malaysian Palm is down 23. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 23 ringgit (-0.59%) at 3845.

There were changes in registrations (6 Oats, 50 Corn, -21 Soymeal). Registration total: 1,479 SRW Wheat contracts; 32 Oats; 887 Corn; 469 Soybeans; 2,589 Soyoil; 205 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat. Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 13 were: SRW Wheat up 6,939 contracts, HRW Wheat up 428, Corn up 4,095, Soybeans up 8,112, Soymeal up 2,765, Soyoil down 10,397.

Brazil: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana:  Scattered showers north Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers south Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, below normal south and above normal north Thursday-Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias:  Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday.

Argentina: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires:  Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures below normal through Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires:  Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures below normal through Friday.

Northern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains:  Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Midwest: West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday. East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

The player sheet for 5/13 had funds: net buyers of 12,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 4,500 corn, buyers of 3,500 soybeans, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN PURCHASE: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased around 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal without an international tender being issued.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Aug. 31 and arrive in Japan by Oct. 31, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on May 15.

TODAY

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn Crop 49% Planted, Soybeans 35% Planted

Highlights from the report:

• Corn planted 49% vs 36% last week, and 60% a year ago
• Corn emerged 23% vs 12% last week, and 25% a year ago
• Soybeans planted 35% vs 25% last week, and 45% a year ago
• Spring wheat planted 61% vs 47% last week, and 35% a year ago
• Spring wheat emerged 25% vs 12% last week, and 11% a year ago
• Soybeans emerged 16% vs 9% last week, and 17% a year ago
• Winter wheat 50% G/E vs 50% last week, and 29% a year ago
• Cotton planted 33% vs 24% last week, and 31% a year ago
• Sorghum planted 26% vs 23% last week, and 27% a year ago

US Inspected 938k Tons of Corn for Export, 406k of Soybeans

In week ending May 9, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Corn: 938k tons vs 1,299k the previous wk, 1,174k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 406k tons vs 358k the previous wk, 190k a yr ago
• Wheat: 366k tons vs 339k the previous wk, 263k a yr ago

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: May 9

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending May 9 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Egypt-bound shipments made up 141k tons of the 406k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, China led in wheat

CROP SURVEY: Brazil 2023-24 Corn Output Seen at 112.4M Tons

Brazil corn production seen about one and a half million tons higher than the national forecast agency’s previous est., according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of six analysts.

• The range of estimates varied from 110m tons to 115.9m tons
• Brazil’s soybean crop seen 1.7m tons higher at 148.3m tons
• Last month, the agency cut its corn output est. by 1.8m tons and its soybean est. by 337,000 tons
• Conab, the Brazilian national supply company, is scheduled to release its latest estimates on May 14 at 9am local time

Brazil 2023/2024 Soybean Crop Seen At 142.82 Million – Patria Agronegocios

• BRAZIL 2023/2024 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 142.82 MILLION TNS VERSUS 143.18 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
• SOYBEAN LOSSES RELATED TO FLOODS IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL SEEN AT 2.4 MLN TNS

Brazil Summer Corn Harvest 86.4% Done as of May 10: Safras

Compares with 85.5% 5-year average, according to report from consulting firm Safras & Mercado.

• Harvest is 99.1% done in Rio Grande do Sul state, 99.4% in Santa Catarina, 100% in Parana, 98.3% in Sao Paulo, 56.7% in Mato Grosso do Sul, 60.3% in Goias/Federal District, 60.4% in Minas Gerais and 100% in Mato Grosso
• Safras estimates 2023/24 summer corn planted area at 3.972m hectares

IKAR Cuts 2024 Russia Wheat Crop Outlook by 5M Tons

Russia’s 2024-25 wheat harvest is now seen at 86m tons, below an earlier estimate for 91m tons, IKAR general director Dmitry Rylko says by email.

• Export outlook lowered to 47m tons, from 50.5m tons
• Estimate for total grain output lowered to 135m tons, from 142m tons
  • Total grain exports now seen at 59.5m tons
• The cut comes “mostly due to frosts in 4 regions, namely Volgograd, Voronezh, Lipetsk and Tambov,” said Rylko
• NOTE: Parts of Russia are facing a cold snap, damaging crops in key grain and oilseed growing regions
  • Dry weather has also impacted some regions

 

Indian wheat stocks at 16-year low after record state sale

Wheat stocks in India’s government warehouses on May 1 were down 10.3% year on year to their lowest since 2008 after two years of low crops prompted the sale of record volumes to boost domestic supplies and lower local prices.

At the start of the month wheat reserves in state stores totalled 26 million metric tons, down from 29 million metric tons in May 2023, according to the state-run Food Corporation of India.

May wheat inventories are higher than April stocks of 7.5 million metric tons after new season purchases by the Food Corporation of India bumped up reserves. Higher temperatures clipped output in 2022 and 2023.

Despite the tight supply, New Delhi has resisted calls to encourage imports by cutting or removing the current 40% tax on imports or by buying directly from leading suppliers such as Russia. Instead, it has dipped into state reserves to sell to bulk consumers, such as flour millers and biscuit makers, to try to curb domestic prices that have been above the state-fixed minimum buying price since the past crop was harvested.

The Food Corporation of India began selling wheat to private players in June 2023 and has so far sold a little more than 10 million tons, a record from state reserves.

India grows only one wheat crop a year, with planting in October and November and harvesting from March. The new season purchases start in April, augmenting state stocks from May.

Although this year’s May stocks are lower than last year, inventories are higher than the government buffer and strategic reserve target that requires wheat stocks to be held at or above 7.46 million tons for the quarter beginning April 1.

India failed to achieve its wheat purchase target in 2022 and 2023, followed by a slow start to this year’s purchases. New Delhi banned wheat exports in 2022 despite a rise in export demand as the Russia-Ukraine conflict led to a global shortfall.

India April Vegetable Oil Imports Rise to 1.32m Tons: SEA

India’s vegetable oil imports rose to 1.32m tons in April from 1.18m tons in March, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

• Palm oil imports rose to 684,094 tons from 485,354 tons in March
• Soybean oil imports rose to 385,514 tons from 218,604 tons in March
• Sunflower oil imports fell to 234,801 tons from 445,723 tons in March

WHEAT/CEPEA: Rains in RS concern players; planting starts this month

It is the offseason period for wheat in Rio Grande do Sul and players from wheat mills are concerned with floods in parts of the state. The delivery of new batches has been affected by the fact that roads and bridges have been destroyed. This scenario, in turn, boosted prices in Paraná and in São Paulo, since part of the demand has been allocated to these states.

According to data from Cepea, between May 3 and 10, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) moved up 0.52% in Santa Catarina, 0.81% in Rio Grande do Sul and 1.75% in Paraná. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values rose 4.45% in São Paulo, 4.29% in Paraná, 0.72% in Rio Grande do Sul and 0.06% in Santa Catarina. Dollar quotations increased 1.72% against Real, at BRL 5.157 on May 10.

Sowing activities may start this month in Rio Grande do Sul. Although the soil is soggy, the largest wheat area is in the northwest of the state, which has been less affected by rains. In this scenario, trades are moving at a slow pace in RS.

In Paraná, according to Seab/Deral, sowing activities have reached 27% of the area, forecast at 1.14 million hectares.

BYPRODUCTS – According to data from Abitrigo, the volume of wheat processed rose 2% in 2023 against the year before, totaling 12.81 million tons. As for prices, from May 3-10, values of wheat bran in bags upped 1.61% and prices of the product in bulk rose 0.45%.

USDA – Data released by the USDA on May 10 indicate that the global production is likely to hit 798.18 million tons in the 2024/25 season, for an increase of 1.3% compared to the previous (2023/24). As for Brazil, the USDA estimates output of 9.5 million tons, 17% higher than the crop before (8.1 million tons).

EXPORTS – According to data from Secex, Brazil imported 454.29 thousand tons of wheat in April, 45.3% higher than the 312.71 thousand tons registered in April last year. Exports totaled 369.55 thousand tons, against 280.65 thousand tons in the same month of 2023.

Australian weather bureau sees 50% chance of La Nina this year

There are early signs that a La Nina weather event may form in the Pacific Ocean later this year, Australia’s weather bureau said on Tuesday.

A La Nina would have significant consequences for global agriculture because it typically brings wetter weather to eastern Australia and southeast Asia and drier conditions to the Americas.

The bureau said it had declared a “La Nina Watch”.

“When La Nina Watch criteria have been met in the past, a La Nina event has subsequently developed around 50% of the time,” it said.

La Nina events result from cooler sea surface temperatures in the Pacific. Warmer sea surface temperatures can cause an opposite weather phenomenon called El Nino, which occurred last year and lasted into early 2024.

“Sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific have been steadily cooling since December 2023,” the bureau said. “The Bureau’s modelling suggests that ENSO will likely remain neutral until at least July 2024,” it said, using the formal name, the El Niño Southern Oscillation, that describes the switch between the two phases.

Other forecasters have also heralded a La Nina later this year. Last week, Japan’s weather bureau said there was a 60% chance it would occur by November, and a U.S. government forecaster said there was a 69% chance that it would develop during July-September.

 

 

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