Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is down. CK is up. WK is unch. KWK is up. MWK is up. US stocks are lower .US Dollar is lower. Crude is mixed near $85. Israel/Iran tension adding risk premium. US suspended buying strategic reserves. Gold is higher. There remains concern over Central Banks liquidating treasuries and buying gold. Lower treasuries could continue to weigh on equites. World watching Taiwan earthquake.
SK is near 11.71. SK dropped below 11.75 support. Dalian soymeal was lower. Soyoil and palmoil futures were higher. Higher US supply and lower China demand for US soybeans is offering resistance to soybean futures. US Midwest rains and favorable South America weather offers resistance. Protein market remains negative due to lower China demand and higher Argentina supply. This and higher energy demand is pushing oil share to 6 month high. EU oilseed and meal imports are down vs ly. Vegoil slightly higher. US and Brazil soybean basis firming.
CK is near 4.28. CK dropped below 4.30 support. Word that China asked importers to stall/halt corn imports weighed on futures. China trying to increase domestic prices before planting season. USDA China Ag Attaché lowered China 2024/25 imports to 20 mmt. Trade watching Ukraine export pace. Crude higher after Ukraine attacked more Russia refineries. Fact 2 pct of US corn crop is planted with wet weather forecast over next 10 days and open planting weather after April 15 also weighs on futures. Machines still unwilling to cover shorts until after planting season limits new buying. Fact farmers have record 61 pct of March 1 stocks and could increase sales higher and continued pricing competition for US corn exports offers resistance. Interesting that cash market already talking about US 2024 fall grain supply could test available storage capacity.
WK is near 5.43. Funds remain short wheat. WK-WN spread widening. Wetter US 2nd week forecast could be weighing on wheat futures. NOAA US 30 day forecast is wet east with Midwest temps warmer than normal. UAE Bank tightened Russia payment policy but Russia allowed more RF/Grain Flower vessels to ship. Saudi Arabia started new crop export buying season with lower prices. W EU is too wet and more rain is forecast. E EU and Black Sea is too dry.
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