Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SF is down 11 cents and near 13.65. SMF is near 438.6. BOF is near 53.24. CH is down 1 cent and near 4.87. WH is up 1 cent and near 5.83. KWH is unch and near 6.26. MWH is unch and near 7.3. US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Short week. CBOT closed Thursday for Holiday. Reopens Friday at 8:30. Closes Friday at 12:05.
SF is near 13.65. Some profit taking is noted overnight before Holiday. Heavy rains continue to S Brazil. Showers continue in C/N Brazil. There remain questions about delays in soybean planting. Farmer could leave beans, replant beans and reduce safrina corn acres or replant cotton on intended soybean acres. All of which suggest lower soybean crop. USDA est 185 higher Brazil soybean crop vs ly and USDA carryout near 245.Extended N Brazil forecast is drier. There was talk that early soybean rally on Tuesday was linked to new longs. Once completed futures sagged. There was talk of China interest in Jan-Feb US PNW soybeans. One group yesterday estimated US 2024 soybean acres near 87.2 mil vs 83.6 this past year. That suggest a US 2024 soybean crop at 4,587 mil bu and carryout 500 mil bu.
CH is near 4.87 and inching lower. CH remains in range between 4.50-5.00. Funds remain short 168,000 corn contracts. There was little corn reaction to Russia attack on Odessa port. Big market debate is the eventual size of Brazil corn crop. Delays in soybean planting could reduce 2nd corn acres. One group yesterday estimated US 2024 corn acres near 91.3 mil vs 94.8 this past year, sorghum 6.7 vs 7.2 and CRP 25.0 vs 23.0. That suggest a US 2024 corn crop at 15.3 bil and carryout 2,800 mil bu.
Wheat futures are quietly mixed. Futures rallied on talk of Russia attack on Ukraine Odessa port. There remain uncertainty over potential Ukraine reaction on Russia ports. Funds remain short 100,000 Chicago wheat contracts and record short Minneapolis spring wheat futures. US HRW crop areas are dry. There were rumors that China may be asking for prices for US SRW. East EU farmers continue to protest Ukraine imports. One group estimated US 2024 all wheat acres at 48.9 vs 49.5 this past year. WW 36.2 vs 36.7 ly. SW 11.0 vs 11.2. US 2024 wheat crop at 1,923 mil bu vs 1,812 ly and carryout 770 mil bu.
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