Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SU is down 4 cents and near 14.22. SMU is near 420.3. BOU is near 65.83. CU is down 8 cents and near 5.28. WU is down 8 cents and near 7.18. KWU is down 16 cents and near 8.58. MWU is down 5 cents and near 8.96. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher and near $76.
US Midwest 2 week forecast is dry with temps warmer than normal. NOAA 30 day forecast was wetter and cooler. This may be triggering some long liquidation. Weekly US export sales were better than expected with new crop sales to China, Mexico and Unknown. EU is also buying US soybeans and soymeal. World vegoil prices are higher on talk of lower Black Sea export outlook. Argentina June soybean crush was at 15 year low, There is talk that Canada canola crop could drop below USDA est in July of 20.3 mmt. Could be some profit taking with SX back below 14.00. BOU up to near 65.71 on talk of lower World vegoil supplies. Key is final US supply and lower Argentina soybean supply.
US Midwest 2 week forecast is dry with temps warmer than normal. NOAA 30 day forecast was wetter and cooler. This may be triggering some long liquidation. Weekly US new crop corn export sales were better than expected. Most of the sales were to Mexico. China increase US sorghum sales. Brazil corn prices remain below US and some could see Brazil 2nd corn crop could be above 100 mmt. Could be some profit taking with CZ back below 5.40. Weekly US ethanol production was higher. Key is final US corn supply and dry US Midwest 2 week forecast and higher temps next week. IGC raised World corn crop 9 mmt to 383.7 due to higher US crop.
Wheat futures are lower led by KC. MWU is gaining on both WU and KWU. Canada and US HRS crop areas remain dry. EU and Black Sea weather look mostly normal. Russia continues to offer wheat for export below other exporters prices and $45 below French wheat. Weekly US wheat export sales were lower than expected. US SRW weather could turn drier which should help harvest. There remains talk that India my need to import wheat. IGC lowered World wheat crop 2 mmt due to lower Argentina crop.
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