Global Ag News for June 29.23

TOP HEADLINES

Kim Loong expects average CPO price to exceed MYR4,000 a tonne in FY24

Despite its volatility and unpredictability, Kim Loong Resources Bhd is hopeful for the average crude palm oil (CPO) for the financial year ending January 31, 2024 (FY24) to stay above MYR4,000 per tonne.

“The plantation industry outlook remains challenging given the commodity price volatilities,  abour shortages, inflationary pressures on cost, persisting weather extremities and biofuel policy changes,” Kim Loong said in the notes accompanying its financial results. The group forecasts fresh fruit bunch (FFB) production for the current FY24 to be 15 per cent higher than the quantity achieved in FY23 on account of more replanted areas coming into maturity and a better age profile of young palms productive area.

“As for palm oil milling operations, the management expects to achieve a total processing throughput of 1.5 million tonnes of FFB for the current FY. “The management also expects our biogas plant at Keningau, which has commenced supply of power to the grid in December 2022, to contribute positively to revenue as well as profit in the financial year 2024.

“On the other hand, our biogas plant at Telupid is expected to commence operations in the second half of FY24,” Kim Loong said.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3 3/4 in SRW, up 4 3/4 in HRW, up 6 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3 3/4; Soybeans up 3 1/4; Soymeal up $0.10; Soyoil down 0.06.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 72 3/4 in SRW, down 51 1/4 in HRW, down 49 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 47 1/4; Soybeans down 41; Soymeal down $20.10; Soyoil up 0.57.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 65 1/2 in SRW, up 25 1/4 in HRW, up 42 in HRS; Corn is up 18 3/4; Soybeans up 121 3/4; Soymeal up $13.10; Soyoil up 9.37.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 16.8% in SRW, down 9.1% in HRW, down 13.4% in HRS; Corn is down 11.8%; Soybeans down 4.2%; Soymeal down 15.8%; Soyoil down 5.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 23) Soybeans up 62 yuan; Soymeal down 9; Soyoil down 4; Palm oil up 48; Corn up 10 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 80 ringgit (+2.18%) at 3755.

There were changes in registrations (-16 Soyoil, -11 Soymeal). Registration total: 2,389 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 1,036 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 97 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 28 were: SRW Wheat down 4,202 contracts, HRW Wheat down 4,176, Corn down 29,351, Soybeans down 13,892, Soymeal down 6,531, Soyoil down 7,504.

Northern Plains: A few disturbances will continue to bring scattered showers through the Northern Plains both this week and next week, providing near-to-above normal rainfall over the next 10 days. Overall, the outlook is favorable for developing crops and forages provided limited damage from earlier dryness.

Central/Southern Plains: Texas will continue to be hot, and the heat is expanding northeastward for the next few days through Oklahoma and eastern Kansas. Some areas of showers and thunderstorms will be possible, though largely isolated until a front comes through this weekend that will bring cooler temperatures into the region. That front may get stuck and bring more periods of rain to southern areas next week while the north may find some showers with another passing front. Sporadic rainfall will leave many areas drier with stress continuing over those in drought.

Midwest: The Midwest will be on the active side for the next couple of weeks, but rains will come in sporadic fashion, with some areas staying dry in the active pattern. Models have become more active over the driest parts of the region over the next few days, favoring a stretch from eastern Nebraska through Illinois and Indiana that were missed over last weekend. Temperatures will build up above normal across the south and east though, which could cause additional stresses for those areas that continue to be dry. More rainfall is likely to occur next week with a front moving through.

Delta: Heat building into the Delta the next few days could be stressful for some of the drier areas. Rainfall could develop Wednesday but a cold front coming through this weekend may bring needed showers into next week, as well as some milder temperatures.

Canadian Prairies: Some disturbances moving through will help to bring at least some areas of showers to the Canadian Prairies the next few days. The showers don’t look overly widespread and many areas are going to be missed in the pattern. Any drier areas currently that continue to be dry this week may show significant stress in developing crops, especially in southern Alberta, where temperatures are likely to be higher most of the week. A system is forecast to move through Sunday and Monday, but the extent of any precipitation into next week is uncertain at this time. Temperatures should cool down, however.

The player sheet for 6/28 had funds: net sellers of 13,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 20,000 corn, sellers of 18,000 soybeans, sellers of 5,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 4,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 138,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• CORN PURCHASE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 21,340 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico for shipment in the 2022/23 marketing year and 149,366 metric tons for shipment in the 2023/24 marketing year.
• FAILED FEED WHEAT TENDER: A group of importers in Thailand is believed to have rejected all offers and made no purchase in an international tender for a nominal 55,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat which closed on Wednesday

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius has issued an international tender to buy 6,000 metric tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins.
• SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of soymeal to be sourced from Brazil or Argentina.

 TODAY

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 0.8% to 22.979M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 22.755 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.052m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.045m

Canada Wheat Area at 26.9M Acres, Canola at 22.1M: StatsCan

Canadian wheat planting was only slightly lower than previously expected, according to Statistics Canada’s principal field crop areas report.

• Analysts in a Bloomberg survey were expecting 26.5m acres
• Canola planting at 22.1m acres, 0.49m acres above the previous est.
• StatsCan’s June report is an update of its initial 2023 estimates, which were published in April

Russia Grain Harvest Pace Above This Time Last Year: Interfax

Russia collected 2m tons of grain by June 28, more than the same time last year, Interfax reported, citing Ministry of Agriculture.

Harvesting under way in 6 Russian regions, Interfax reports.

Russia’s grain sowing almost complete in line with plans – minister

Russia’s grain sowing campaign has almost been completed, with the sown areas in line with plans, Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev said on Wednesday.

“According to preliminary data, 55.6 million hectares have been sown. This is higher than last year and in line with plans,” he said.

The harvesting campaign is already underway in six regions of southern Russia and the North Caucasus.

France’s Rouen Grain Exports Rise 32% in Week to June 28

Grain exports from France’s Rouen port totaled 70,883 tons in the week to June 28, compared with 53,804 tons a week earlier, according to an emailed report.

Fertilizer Prices Move Higher in Brazil

Prices were up for all fertilizers in Brazil. Urea increased to $315-$345 a metric ton (mt) cost-and-freight vs. last week’s $300-$320, with multiple reports of a lack of new offers. Ammonium sulfate jumped $20/mt from last week, to $155-$165/mt, with firming urea prices fueling the increase. Brazil monoammonium phosphate (MAP) reached $430-$450/mt, up $10 from last week, with other dry phosphate prices also gaining. Potash climbed to $310-$350/mt vs. the prior week’s $300-$320, with sources speculating that last week’s range was a price floor and some sellers claiming they’re not offering formula-based potash prices any longer.

 

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