Written Commentary
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index fell to a four-week low despite the Federal Reserve suggesting two more quarter-point rate increases by the end of the year.
Hourly labor costs in the euro area increased by 5.0% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2023, easing from a 5.6% increase in the previous period.
The British pound advanced to its highest level since April 2022, as investors look forward to the Bank of England’s upcoming monetary policy meeting on June 22. There are expectations of the Bank of England resorting to further interest rate hikes in response to ongoing inflationary pressures.
The Bank of Japan kept its key short-term interest rate unchanged at -0.1% and that of 10-year bond yields at around 0% in its policy meeting today by a unanimous vote.
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
S&P 500 and NASDAQ futures hit a new annual high today.
The 9:00 central time June consumer sentiment index is expected to be 60.0.
Wednesday’s “hawkish pause“ from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting had only a temporary and muted bearish impact on stock index futures.
Futures continue to overperform the news.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Traders are currently anticipating the next rate hike, and possibly the last one, will take place at the July meeting.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 72% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will hike its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at the July 26 meeting, and there is a 28% chance that the fed funds rate will remain unchanged.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
