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Global Ag News Headlines May 22

Ag Markets By ADMIS Research Team

Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 7 cents, HRW down 4; HRS Wheat down 3, Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans down 4, Soymeal down $0.50, and Soyoil down 30 points. 

For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 9 cents; HRW down 2; HRS up 8; Corn is down 3 cents; Soybeans down 8 cents; Soymeal down $5.00, and; Soyoil up 20 points. Crushing margins are down 1 cent; Oil share up 1% at 32%. 

Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 110 yuan, down 13 yuan in Corn, down 1 in Soymeal, down 30 in Soyoil, and down 20 in Palm Oil. 

Malaysian palm oil prices were down 37 ringgit at 2,170 (basis August) on ongoing trade tensions. 

U.S. Weather Forecast 

The most significant precipitation changes in last night’s GFS model run were in the Jun. 3 – 5 timeframe; the change was partially due to this evening’s run showing an overdone surge of below to well below average temperatures in the Corn Belt which caused this region to be too dry 

The model also suggested too strong of a trough of low pressure to move into the Hard Red Winter Wheat Region and then combine with a tight temperature gradient from the overdone cool air; this led to too much rainfall shown in the Hard Red Winter Wheat Region, Texas, and also Idaho 

South America Weather Forecast 

No changes have occurred in Safrinha crop areas of Brazil for the rain event tonight into Saturday; significant rain will occur in far southern Brazil, much of Parana, and southwestern Mato Grosso do Sul; rain will occur in Sao Paulo, northeastern Mato Grosso do Sul, and southwestern Mato Grosso as well 

Black Sea/Europe region 

Little change occurred in the first week of the outlook in Europe or the western CIS, although there was a reduction in rainfall in parts of Ukraine; there is still little to no rain in France, western Germany, Belgium, Netherlands or the United Kingdom during the coming week and rainfall in central Ukraine, southeastern Belarus and northwestern Russia was advertised to be minimal 

Rain in Russia’s Southern Region would be sufficient to induce some increase in soil moisture and benefit to crops 

A subtle reduction in rainfall was noted for southeastern portions of Russia’s New Lands, although the previous model run was not advertising very much rain 

The player sheet had funds net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 8,000 Corn; net sold 10,000 Soybeans; net sold 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net sold 2,000 Soyoil. 

We estimate Managed Money net long 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 238,000 Corn; net long 20,000 Soybeans; net short 20,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 3,000 Soyoil.  

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 2,100 contracts; HRW Wheat up 2,500; Corn up 9,700; Soybeans up 5,600 contracts; Soymeal up 3,500 lots, and; Soyoil up 335. 

There were no changes in registrations---Registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 153; Soyoil 3,495 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 121; HRW Wheat 17, and; HRS Wheat 488 contracts. 

TODAY------CATTLE ON FEED REPORT---JUN OPTIONS EXPIRE---COMMITMENTS REPORT--- 

Tender Activity---S. Korea bought 36,200t U.S. wheat, passed on 54,000t U.S. wheat---Jordan retenders for 120,000t optional-origin wheat---Philippines seek 168,000t optional-origin feed wheat---Japan bought 110,500t U.S./Canadian/Australian wheat--- 

Crop scouts who conducted a three-day tour of hard red winter wheat fields in Kansas estimated the state's 2020 crop at 284.4 million bushels, organizers said in an online meeting 

---The average yield from fields scouted on this week's tour was 44.5 bushels per acre (bpa)

---The tour's figures fell below the U.S. Department of Agriculture's estimate this month for a 305.5 million-bushel Kansas crop with an average yield of 47.0 bpa 

For the week ended May 14th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 3% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 1% with the USDA forecasting a 4% increase on the year 

---By class, HRW wheat sales are up 7%, shipments 9% ahead with a USDA forecast of a 12% increase

---SRW sales 27% behind, shipments 27% behind with a 26% decline seen

---HRS sales 11% ahead, shipments up 3% with a 6% increase seen 

For the week ended May 14th, U.S. Corn sales are running 17% behind a year ago, shipments 30% behind with the USDA forecasting a 14% decline. 

For the week ended May 14th, U.S. Soybean sales are running 9% behind a year ago, shipments 4% ahead with the USDA forecasting a 4% decline on the year 

---Soymeal sales 8% behind on the year, shipments down 3% with a 1% decrease forecasted

---Soyoil sales 54% ahead of a year ago, shipments 41% ahead with a 31% increase forecasted 

The National Corn Growers Association issued the following news 

---The confluence of available corn-based feedstocks and consumer demand represents an opportunity for stakeholders in the sustainable biomaterials industry and will help drive demand for corn; the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) is working to establish new uses of corn and demonstrating corn as the clear feedstock of choice; the seeds have to be planted along the way to find the next big new uses of corn," said NCGA Director of Market Development 

U.S. GENERATED 357 MLN BIODIESEL (D4) BLENDING CREDITS IN APRIL, VS 371 MLN IN MARCH -EPA 

U.S. GENERATED 645 MLN ETHANOL (D6) BLENDING CREDITS IN APRIL, VS 1.14 BLN IN MARCH -EPA 

MAY 21 2020 COLD STORAGE REPORT 

Total red meat supplies in freezers were down 1 percent from the previous month but up 5 percent from last year. 

Total pounds of beef in freezers were down 2 percent from the previous month but up 14 percent from last year. 

Frozen pork supplies were down slightly from the previous month and down 1 percent from last year. 

Stocks of pork bellies were up 3 percent from last month and up 32 percent from last year. 

U.S. frozen pork inventories fell in April, when they typically rise, and beef inventories dropped more than normal as the coronavirus pandemic shut slaughterhouses and prompted grocers to limit customers' buying, government data showed on 

U.S. April cattle placements seen down 22.6% as virus shut meat plants -analysts - Reuters News 

Saskatchewan crop report 

---Seeding progress in Saskatchewan more than doubled last week, thanks to minimal rainfall and few disruptions in field work; fifty-one per cent of the crop has been planted, getting seeding progress on track with the five-year average of 51 per cent (2015-2019) for this time of year 

China will draft and carry out in 2020 a response plan for ensuring food security amid the global coronavirus pandemic, the country's state planner said; Beijing will also draw up a new national medium-to-long-term plan in the new year to secure food supplies; the move came as the pandemic has roiled agriculture supply chains worldwide, and threatened to trigger a potential food crisis; Chinese authorities have urged state and private firms to boost inventories of major agriculture products like soybeans and corn to prepare for any further disruptions from the outbreak. 

---China was the first to take very strong actions and is the first to be exiting the COVID-19 crisis, so there are a lot of valuable lessons to be learned from China's experience, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said; China, clearly, has been taking very strong actions to combat the pandemic; what they've done broadly on the monetary and the fiscal front, of course, which many other countries have taken strong measures in those areas, the way that China is letting the economy adjust to these new and difficult circumstances, which, again, is something all countries need to do 

---African swine fever, a disease that has decimated China's pig herd, remains a severe threat to hog production but the nation will not see a big increase in pork prices, the Agriculture Minister said; China will not have a grain supply crisis 

Russia's IKAR agriculture consultancy said on Thursday it had cut its forecast for Russia's 2020 wheat crop to 76.2 million tons from 77.2 million tons 

Grains trader Gemcorp Commodities Trading is planning to boost the volume of Russian wheat it supplies to its African clients in the new season on hopes that rains will help crops meet quality requirements

---UK-based Gemcorp, founded by former Goldman Sachs and VTB Capital executive in 2013, agreed a new deal to supply 200,000 tonnes of wheat to drought- and locust-hit Ethiopia this week; if the product is available from Russia, we will ship from Russia in the new season as a priority, subject to market conditions 

The condition of French soft wheat improved in the week to May 18, with 57% of crops rated good or excellent against 55% the previous week, farm office FranceAgriMer said 

---The good/excellent score for winter barley also improved, to 52% from 51%, but the spring barley rating fell to 58% from 62% 

---For grain maize, farmers had sown 93% of the expected crop area by May 18 compared with 90% the previous week; for emerged maize crops, 86% were rated good/excellent versus 87% for the prior week 

German authorities said they closed another abattoir after an outbreak of coronavirus among its workers; the plant, in Dissen in north Germany, had already been on reduced operations slaughtering pigs after a previous discovery of coronavirus there 

Some link China's new tariffs to Australia's push for a COVID-19 inquiry but it is likely the seeds of dispute were sown earlier; in November 2018, China announced an investigation into whether the Australian government was unfairly subsidizing our barley producers or whether they had engaged in "dumping"; dumping is said to occur when exports are sold at a price below "normal" value, giving foreigners an unfair advantage against domestic producers; the implication is that a nation is "dumping" its surplus product in a way that is against the spirit of free trade; however, countries often use the allegation as a guise to protect their local producers from cheaper imports; dumping is not illegal but the World Trade Organization has guidelines about the practice. 

The World Bank on Thursday approved a record $500 million in grants and low-interest loans to help countries in Africa and the Middle East fight swarms of desert locusts that are eating their way across vast swaths of crops and rangelands; the Horn of Africa finds itself at the epicenter of the worst locust outbreak we have seen in a generation, most probably in more than a generation," he said, noting the new coronavirus pandemic is exacerbating the crisis. 

Asia Grains-Black Sea wheat prices rise on Russian crop worries

  • Prices of Black Sea wheat offered in Asia rose this week to around $225 a ton, including cost and freight (C&F), up about by $5 a ton from last week on concerns over lower production in Russia
  • Most Asian buyers are covered for supplies up to June and not much buying is taking place
  • Prices being offered for Black Sea wheat have started rising. 

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