Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 7 cents, HRW down 6; HRS Wheat down 4, Corn is down 2 cents; Soybeans down 8, Soymeal down $3.00, and Soyoil down 5 points.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 60 yuan in Soybeans, up 3 in Corn, down 40 in Soymeal, down 30 in Soyoil, and down 8 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 13 ringgits at 2,396 (basis June) at midsession.
This evening’s GFS model run was likely out of line with the two significant precipitation events that it showed impacting the Northern Plains, the first one being Apr. 2 – 5 and the second one being Apr. 7 – 9.
Conditions in much of Brazil and Argentina’s production region will still be favorable for fieldwork and crop development.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 10,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 8,000 Corn; sold 3,000 Soybeans; net sold 6,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 2,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 41,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 98,000 Corn; net long 8,000 contracts of Soybeans; net long 40,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net long 8,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 2,600 contracts; HRW Wheat down 800; Corn down 8,300; Soybeans down 2,800 contracts; Soymeal down 4,300 lots, and; Soyoil up 1,000.
There were changes in registrations (Soybeans down 7)---Registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 43; Soybeans 350; Soyoil 2,668 lots; Soymeal 564; Rice 700; HRW Wheat 10, and; HRS Wheat 821 contracts.
TODAY----WEEKLY EXPORT SALES---
The U.S. coronavirus stimulus bill would add $14 billion to the Agriculture Department's Commodity Credit Corp spending authority, and authorize another $9.5 billion for U.S. farmers hurt by the fast-spreading pandemic, according to a copy of the bill's text.
New-crop corn and soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade have reached the lowest March levels in more than a decade with just a few weeks until the kickoff of the U.S. planting season; but despite the low prices, U.S. farmers are expected to boost acreage significantly over last year’s levels, which were dampened by historic rains and waterlogged soils; not only are corn acres set to rise on the year, but many recent industry estimates peg U.S. corn plantings at a four-year and potentially a seven-year high; soybean acres should make a substantial recovery from 2019 but remain well off the highs from the previous two years.
The Trump administration has decided not to appeal a court ruling that would sharply reduce its use of waivers exempting refineries from the nation's biofuels regulation, cheering the corn lobby but drawing anger from oil refiners.
The ethanol market is applauding a Trump administration decision not to challenge a federal court ruling that would limit the use of waivers by the EPA to exempt small oil refineries from biofuel usage requirements; the administration made the right call by deciding to not appeal the court's decision, and we look forward to receiving more guidance on how they will address SRE
Ethanol production in the US is on the decline this week--falling 30,000 barrels a day to just over 1M barrels a week
---The fall was expected by grains traders, with bigger declines expected in the coming weeks as ethanol producers continue to shutter their operations in the face of poor margins making production unprofitable
---Ethanol stockpiles are also down this week, dropping 458,000 barrels to 24.1M barrels.
Global food security concerns are mounting with around a fifth of the world's population already under lockdown to fight the widening coronavirus pandemic; compounding the anxiety stemming from erratic consumer buying has been concern that some governments may move to restrict the flow of food staples to ensure their own populations have enough while supply chains get disrupted by the pandemic.
Mexico plans to subsidize up to 20,000 northern corn farmers with price guarantees during the coronavirus crisis, the government announced; farmers will be guaranteed a price $20 higher per ton than the current market rates, with production quotas of up to 600 tons.
Chinese soybean processors fear the spread of coronavirus in major exporters could lead to further supply shortages, with some plants in the world's biggest buyer already having to wind back operations, industry sources and traders said; top producers Brazil and Argentina have warned of possible delays in getting beans to ports because of transport and other restrictions to control the virus; the moves come after delayed shipments from Brazil due to rains in late February have slashed Chinese inventories to record lows; crush margins in Rizhao, Shandong province, a major processing and import hub in northern China, spiked sharply higher over the past two weeks to hit 360 yuan ($50.73) a ton, the highest in 8 years.
Brazilian farm lobby CNA has warned the government that grain, coffee and sugarcane growers in the South American agricultural powerhouse face operational hurdles due to the coronavirus epidemic; the CNA Superintendent said challenges include hiring freight, harvest labor and maintenance of farm equipment as cities and states restrict movement to prevent the virus from spreading.
Brazilian farm town Canarana in Mato Grosso state will amend its coronavirus decree halting operations in most industries to allow global trading companies to ship grains out of the city, the mayor said
Argentine soy and corn farmers were harvesting on Wednesday but looked increasingly unlikely to rush their crops to market, even after the government moved to resolve coronavirus-related problems that have slowed delivery to the country's export hubs.
Russia's vegetable oil union has asked the agriculture ministry to restrict sunflower seed exports for six months from April 1 following a surge in domestic prices due to a fall in the rouble currency, the head of the union said; Russia is the world's second largest producer of sunflower seeds after Ukraine
Weather conditions and soil moisture are favorable for Ukraine's 2020 spring grain sowing, which started earlier this month, the country's state weather forecasters said; Ukraine plans to sow more than 7 million hectares to spring grains this year, including 5.4 million hectares of corn and 1.14 million hectares of spring barley.
Ukraine does not plan to restrict its food exports, the deputy economy minister in charge of agriculture said; the spread of the novel coronavirus has made some nations look at imposing restrictions.
The European Union needs to keep its single market open despite the coronavirus epidemic if it wants to guarantee food supplies for its consumers, Europe's leading farm association told EU countries; measures to restrict the virus have blocked borders between EU member states and risk preventing the arrival of seasonal workers
France's grain industry is scrambling to find enough trucks and staff to keep factories and ports running as panic buying of pasta and flour because of the coronavirus pandemic coincides with a surge in wheat exports; the French government's designation of the food sector as a strategic priority has helped pasta manufacturers, flour mills and grain exporters get through a first week of lockdown in France
South Africa will likely harvest 31% more maize in 2020 after good weather condition and increased yields in the Free State, North West provinces, the government's Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) said; giving its second production forecast for the 2020 crop, the CEC estimated production at 14.809 million tons, compared with 11.275 million tons harvested in the previous year when dry conditions affected plantings.
While consumers in many parts of the world have complained of toilet paper shortages, Algerians in recent days have been struck by a shortage of semolina flour; videos have been circulating on social media showing people queuing to obtain semolina
Shares in Japanese trading houses sank on Thursday after Marubeni Corp warned it will book a record annual loss as the coronavirus outbreak sends prices of oil and commodities tumbling
Shares in Marubeni plunged about 13% after it said it would have to write down massive impairment losses on its assets raging from oil, copper to grains; Marubeni on Wednesday predicted a record net loss of 190 billion yen ($1.71 billion) for the year ending March, against a previous prediction of a 200 billion yen net profit.
Indonesia's palm oil production is expected to reach 43.5 million metric tons in 2020-21, up from 42.5 million metric tons in 2019-20, with increased area partially offset by lower yields resulting from fewer inputs and sub-optimal rainfall in 2018-2019, the U.S. Department of Agriculture says
---It adds that palm oil exports and soybean imports for 2019-20 have been revised downward due to expected weaker demand overseas and domestically as a result of the coronavirus pandemic
---Indonesia exported 2.39 million tons of palm oil in January, including refined products
---shipments fell from 3.25 million tons in the same month last year and 3.72 million tons in December
Contact Us Today
Get free guides and special offers in the Resource Center.
© 2018 Archer Financial Services, Inc.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but merely a collection of information related to Archer Financial services and commodities trading provided by Archer Financial services. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such element, nor with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained.
The risk of loss in trading futures and options on futures can be substantial. Each investor must carefully consider whether this type of investment is appropriate for them. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.