Overnight trade has SRW up roughly 2 cents, HRW up 2, HRS Wheat up 1, Corn is unchanged, Soybeans up 1 cent, Soymeal down $1.00, and Soyoil up 10 points.
For the week, Winter Wheat prices are down roughly 9 cents for Soft Red Winter, down 4 for the Hard Red Winter, and down 9 for Hard Red Spring; Corn is down 4 cents; Soybeans up 10; Soymeal up $2.00, and; Soyoil down 10 points; Crushing margins are down 7 cents at $0.95; oil-share is unchanged at 34%.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 49 yuan in Soybeans, down 6 in Corn, up 1 in Soymeal, down 74 in Soyoil, and down 76 in Palm Oil.
The Malaysian Palm Oil market was up 34 ringgit at 2,659 (basis April) on bargain buying.
The South American weather forecast for Brazil has no change as rains continue over the next 6 to 10 days for most of the growing regions with things turning drier the rest of next week.
The Argentine weather forecast has rains quieting down over the weekend; a front brings rains Monday and Tuesday of next week before turning quiet the second half.
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 9,000 Corn; bought 9,000 Soybeans; were net even in Soymeal, and; sold 4,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 41,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 67,000 Corn; net short 62,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 59,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net long 65,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 12,700 contracts; HRW Wheat down 1,400; Corn up 19,900; Soybeans up 3,900 contracts; Soymeal up 4,600 lots, and; Soyoil up 6,500.
There were no changes in registrations---Registrations total ZERO contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 58; Soybeans 131; Soyoil 2,793 lots; Soymeal 1,714; Rice 565; HRW Wheat 10, and; HRS Wheat 788 contracts.
TODAY-------COMMITMENT OF TRADERS----DAY SESSION CLOSED MONDAY---
In tender activity---Algeria bought 35,000t optional-origin corn---Egypt bought 41,500t optional-origin soyoil-
China has pumped billions of dollars into its financial system, raised expectations of an interest-rate cut and pledged to cut red tape in a bevy of emergency responses to the economic hit of its coronavirus outbreak; but there is nothing typical about China's coronavirus challenge, which economists say defies traditional prescriptions for dealing with an economic shock; none of the measures announced so far, they say, can offset the abrupt drop in consumer spending and disrupted business activity in China.
The tenfold increase in new coronavirus infections in China -- with 14,840 new infections reported on Wednesday -- is a drag on grains futures trading on the CBOT; grain markets were lower as traders attempt to discern the severity of the coronavirus (still a big unknown), while hopes of Phase 1 purchases linger in the back of their minds
Grains futures on the CBOT were weighed down Thursday as a sudden jump in coronavirus cases in China is making traders reconsider how long Chinese demand will be stunted--as in, how long until they start to fulfill their obligations under the phase-one trade deal signed in January; the CBOT has lacked volume as traders try to understand the demand risk of China's coronavirus against its pledge to open its markets and secure US ag goods as early as next week
For the week ended February 6th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 22% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 34% with the USDA forecasting a 7% increase on the year
For the week ended February 6th, U.S. Corn sales are running 26% behind a year ago, shipments 38% behind with the USDA forecasting a 16% decline.
For the week ended February 6th, U.S. Soybean sales are running 9% ahead of a year ago, shipments 54% ahead with the USDA forecasting a 4% increase on the year
---Soymeal sales 9% ahead on the year, shipments up 31% with a 3% decrease forecasted
---Soyoil sales 58% ahead of a year ago, shipments 76% ahead with a 2% decline forecasted
The amount of US corn inspected for export in the week that ended February 6 totaled 769,390 mt, a 36.8% rise compared with the prior week, and up 2.2% year on year, the US Department of Agriculture said Monday in its weekly Federal Grain Inspection Service report; since the 2019-20 marketing year started on September 1, the volume of US corn inspected for export totaled 11.494 million mt, 50.5% below the same period in the previous marketing year and 25.4% of the USDA's latest projection of 45.087 million mt for the 2019-20 marketing year; US export shipments were below the average weekly pace needed to reach the USDA estimate of exports in the 2019-20 marketing year.
Soybean export sales totaled 644,800 metric tons for the 2019/20 marketing year, and 6,300 tons for 2020/21; this is 8% lower than the previous week, and puts soybeans sales at the low end of trader forecasts; for those looking for a boom in sales to China, the report is bad news -- although China is listed as having bought 132,000 tons; however, the combined effect of coronavirus and the Lunar New Year appear to have sapped export demand for the time being; sales of corn totaled 968,800 tons, meeting trader expectations, and wheat sales totaled 643,100 tons -- more than expected by traders.
U.S. soybean exports to China fell to their lowest in nearly 10 months as the coronavirus outbreak has raised concerns about demand from the world's top buyer of the oilseed, the U.S. Agriculture Department said; a weekly government report showed that exporters shipped just 69,009 tons of soybeans, about one cargo, to China in the week ended Feb. 6. That was the lowest since U.S. exporters shipped 67,113 tons in the week ended April 18, 2019; U.S. traders have been waiting for a pick-up in exports to China since Washington and Beijing inked a trade deal in mid-January.
U.S. soybean processors kept up their active crushing pace in January, encouraged by good crush margins and strong demand for soymeal
NOPA members likely crushed 173.748 million bushels of soybeans last month; if realized, it would be down from the 174.812 million bushels crushed in December but above the January 2019 crush of 171.630 million bushels; crush estimates ranged from 171.000 million to 176.980 million bushels
The monthly NOPA report will be released at 11 a.m. CST (1700 GMT) on Tuesday
Soyoil supplies among NOPA members at the end of January were seen rising to 1.782 billion pounds, up from 1.757 billion at the end of December and 1.549 billion at the end of January 2019; estimates for soyoil stocks ranged from 1.650 billion to 1.875 billion pounds
Farmland sales increased in 2019 across US Plains States like Missouri and Nebraska after years of declines, according to a Kansas City Fed survey; about 74% of farmland sales in the KC Fed district last year were made to other farmers, versus investment funds and other speculators; farmers' percentage of land purchases has steadily decreased since 2014; farmland values in the district increased slightly in 2019's fourth quarter, but more land coming onto the market could push values lower
Bayer doesn't want its corn to grow up too fast; the seed and pesticide manufacturer is developing a new, shorter variety of corn that the company says will reduce farmers' crop losses, as shorter stalks will be less likely to break due to wind; shorter corn plants would also let farmers run sprayers in their fields later in the season, rather than spraying insecticides from planes, which Bayer's agricultural R&D head says will allow farmers spray less and with more precision.
China has sold 1.32 million tons of corn to feed processing firms in southern provinces to ensure their raw material supply, the state planner said
Ships carrying refrigerated cargo containers of chicken from the United States to China are being diverted to ports in Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam due to the coronavirus outbreak; the virus, which is causing havoc in the global container shipping trade, is keeping consumers and workers at home in China, delaying purchases at stores and restaurants and slowing the unloading of products at ports.
Brazilian soy exports to China may drop 7-15% this year due to the U.S.-China trade deal and a likely slowdown caused by the coronavirus outbreak, analysts projected; China is expected to import 54 million tons of soy from Brazil in 2020, down from 58 million tons the previous year; we see a small reduction in Brazilian exports to China, and obviously an increase in American exports to China, but it's not a catastrophe.
Brazil might not be harvesting soybeans at a record pace, but farmers there are certainly selling their crops at a much quicker clip than usual due to the weak currency and uncertainty over how the U.S.-China trade deal will affect their business; Brazil typically ships more than half of its annual soybean exports between March and June, and some 75% of those head to China; Brazil’s January soybean shipments to China were down sharply from last year on more U.S. involvement, but American bean sales and exports to the world’s top buyer have cooled in recent weeks
---The United States may have to ship a record volume of soybeans to China this year in order to satisfy the recently signed Phase 1 trade deal; that might not be so bad for Brazil if it results in a drastic reduction in U.S. soy trade with other countries, but Brazilian farmers smell the competition, especially with the uncertainty about demand from China amid its troubles with African swine fever
---As of this week in Mato Grosso, Brazil's top soybean producing state, farmers had sold 68% of their 2019-20 soybean crop, at least a five-year high for the date and well above last year and the five-year average, both 54%; as of Friday, the crop was 45% harvested, above the average of 32% but behind last year’s record of 53%
---In Parana, Brazil's No. 2 soybean state, farmers had sold 26.5% of their current soybean crop by the end of January, similar to a year ago; some 10% of the area had been harvested as of Monday, and that is well off the average of about 22%
Brazilian Agriculture said on Thursday that the impact of coronavirus should be viewed with calm and not blown out of proportion, amid rising concern that the disease outbreak in China could hurt demand for commodities; also said that Brazil will be affected by the recent U.S.-China trade deal, but it "won't be that catastrophic" as the country is seeking to expand its agriculture exports into new countries and products.
Argentina's 2019/20 corn harvest is expected at 49 million tons, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said in its weekly report offering its first corn crop estimate of the season; the South American grains powerhouse harvested a record 50.6 million tons of corn in the previous season; a crop of 49 million tons would be the country's second biggest harvest ever.
---The Rosario grains exchange in Argentina increased its forecast for this season's soybean and corn harvests, citing favorable rains; both forecasts were raised by 1 million tons, to 55 million tons for soybeans and 50 million for corn
FranceAgriMer estimated that 65% of soft wheat crops were in good or excellent condition by Feb. 10, stable versus a week earlier but down from 85% a year ago.
There is an about 60% chance of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions prevailing during the Northern Hemisphere spring in 2020, a U.S. government weather forecaster said on Thursday; the chances of the neutral weather pattern continuing through summer 2020 is 50%.
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