Latest Market News

Global Ag News Headlines for 8/12

commentary by ADMIS Ag Research Team

Wheat prices overnight are down roughly 4 cents in the SRW Wheat, down 3 in HRW, and unchanged for HRS; Corn is down 3 cents; Soybeans down 5; Soymeal down $1.50, and; Soyoil down 30 points. 

For the week, Winter Wheat prices are up roughly 10 cents for Soft Red Winter, down 5 in the Hard Red Winter, and down 4 for Hard Red Spring; Corn was up 8 cents; Soybeans up 23; Soymeal up $4.00, and; Soyoil up 125 points (crushing margins were unchanged at $1.05, oil-share was up 1% at 33%). 

Chinese Ag futures (January) settled unchanged in Soybeans, up 22 in Corn, down 11 yuan in Soymeal, up 102 in Soyoil, and up 78 in Palm Oil. 

The Malaysian Palm Oil market was closed for holiday. 

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast is a bit wetter than what the weekend model presented now looking at close to average rains to fall across the region over the next 10 days---temps will run average to below over the next 4 days and then look to warm to above average by Friday and into the weekend; cooling returns the first half of next week. 

The U.S. Delta and Southeastern states will see a good mix of rain and sunshine along with warm temperatures during the next seven days. 

The 11 to 16 Day Outlook for the Midwest now has temps running average to slightly below and precip running average to a bit below. 

In deliveries, Soymeal totaled 185 lots; Soyoil 99; and; Soybeans 966 contracts. 

The player sheet had funds net even in SRW Wheat; sold 3,000 Corn; net bought 7,000 soybeans; bought 2,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 7,000 lots of Soyoil.

 We estimate Managed Money net long 15,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 93,000 Corn; net short 59,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 36,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 18,000 Soyoil.  

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 4,700 contracts; HRW Wheat up 4,700; Corn down 21,100; Soybeans down 1,800 contracts; Soymeal up 1,300 lots, and; Soyoil up 2,300. 

There were changes in registrations (Soyoil down 88)---Registrations total ZERO contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 1,251; Soybeans 1,227; Soyoil 2,154 lots; Soymeal 820; Rice 1,036; HRW Wheat 5, and; HRS Wheat 1,176 contracts. 

TODAY-------EXPORT INSPECS---USDA MONTHLY CROP PRODUCTION, S/D----CROP PROGRESS/CONDITIONS--- 

In tender activity-----Taiwan seeks 94,950t U.S. wheat--- 

Wire story---Commodities Corner: Corn Prices May Get Boost -- Barron's

---The corn crop looks set to go from bad to worse, which should boost prices of the grain; the combination of a weather-related planting delay, lower-than-forecast crop yields, and the probability of fall frost could conspire to produce double-digit gains in futures prices 

Speculators were sellers of all Chicago-traded grains and oilseeds early last week, but commodity funds are still carrying a decent-sized long position in corn ahead of Monday’s data dump from the U.S. government; the market expects that the U.S. Department of Agriculture report will show U.S. corn production significantly smaller than previously estimated; that is expected to drastically reduce year-end supplies, even though demand for the U.S. grain has been subpar

---Analysts also expect the USDA to make a more modest reduction to U.S. soybean production, though investors are already carrying a sizable short position in the oilseed 

Renewable fuel credits for 2019 sold off on Friday afternoon, traders said, after news that the U.S.; Environmental Protection Agency is expected to announce its 2018 small refinery waiver decisions on Friday; the EPA is seen granting 30 exemptions from the nation's biofuel laws out of the 38 pending petitions; the D6 credits last traded at about 12 cents each on Friday, down from 20 cents each on Thursday

---The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has granted 31 small refinery biofuel waivers for 2018 on Friday, infuriating the ethanol and corn producers who blamed the Trump administration for bailing out the oil industry when U.S. farmers were suffering due to trade tariffs and low prices; the waivers from the country's biofuel laws were fewer than previous year's and marked an increase in the number of petitions rejected, but the EPA's decision was still unlikely to satisfy the powerful U.S. corn lobby which wants a broad retrenchment of the biofuel waiver program it blames for undercutting ethanol demand.

Total 2019-crop wheat quantity outstanding into the government's 9-month price support loan program are 3.992 million bushels, an increase of 1.571 million bushels during the week ended Aug 5 

---Total 2018-crop corn quantity outstanding into the government's 9-month price support loan program are 265.837 million bushels, a decrease of 17.576 million bushels 

---Total 2018-crop soybean quantity outstanding into the government's 9-month price support loan program 74.780 million bushels, a decrease of 4.534 million bushels 

China's agriculture ministry said it has revised down its estimate for 2018/19 soybean imports to 83.5 million tons, down 1.5 million tons from last month's estimate, due to lower-than-expected shipments in July

---The ministry also upgraded its estimate for 2018/19 corn imports to 4 million tonnes, an increase of 700,000 tonnes from the previous month; the revised estimate for corn imports was mainly due to a significant reduction in U.S. sorghum imports 

CHINA SELLS 72,695 TONNES OF SOYBEAN, OR 54.37% OF TOTAL OFFER, AT AUCTION OF STATE RESERVES; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE OF SOYBEAN IS 3,003 YUAN PER TONNE - TRADE CENTRE 

CHINA SELLS 19,996 TONNES OF RAPESEED OIL, OR 100% OF TOTAL OFFER, AT AUCTION OF STATE RESERVES; AVERAGE PRICE OF RAPESEED OIL SOLD AT AUCTION OF STATE RESERVES IS 6,314 YUAN PER TONNE- TRADE CENTRE 

Brazil is expected to export 72 million tons of soy this year, compared to 68.1 million tons in the previous forecast, the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) said; the new forecast took into account the additional Chinese demand for Brazilian soy since China stopped buying from U.S. farmers due to the ongoing trade war; it cut its forecast for Brazil's end-2019 soy stock to 2.565 million tons from 5.637 million tons in the July estimate. 

SovEcon said it had raised its 2019 Russian wheat crop production forecast to 74.4 million tons from 73.7 million tons; Sovecon also said it had cut its total grain crop estimate to 116.8 million tons from 117.2 million tons. 

Russia has received the right to export wheat to Saudi Arabia; confirmation that Saudi Arabia has dropped its requirement for zero content of grains damaged by corn bugs in imported wheat and plans to admit wheat with up to a 0.5% share of damaged grains to the next tender has been confirmed. 

Ukraine, which expects its 2019 grain crop to be in line with last year's level of around 70 million tons, had harvested 36.8 million tons of early grains by Aug. 9, the agriculture ministry said. 

---As of August 8, from the beginning of the 2019/2020 marketing year, Ukraine exported 4.7 million tons of cereals, which is 1.6 million tons more than in the same period last year.

In particular, the following markets were delivered to foreign markets

wheat - 1.9 million tons;
barley - 1.1 million tons;
corn - 1.6 million tons 

The cereal harvest in France was showing generally good quality, including for its main soft wheat crop, farming agency FranceAgriMer said; the 2019 soft wheat crop was showing satisfactory protein content, with a 10.5-11.5% range in the western half of the country and 11.5-12.5% in the eastern half

---For rapeseed, set for a sharp drop in production because of weather and pest problems, average oil content was similar to last year at about 43% but encompassing a wider range of 37% to 47% that could sometimes fall short of market requirements 

Indian farmers have planted 87 million hectares with summer-sown crops so far, farm ministry data showed, down 5.3% from last year, narrowing the sowing gap as monsoon rains picked up from the previous week. 

MALAYSIA'S AUG 1-10 PALM OIL EXPORTS SEEN AT 511,756 TONNES VERSUS JULY 1-10 AT 367,950 TONNES -AMSPEC MALAYSIA