Latest Market News

Global Ag News Headlines 3/14

by ADMIS Ag Research Team

Wheat prices overnight are up roughly 4 cents in the SRW Wheat, up 2 in HRW, and up 2 for HRS; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans down 1; Soymeal up $0.50, and; Soyoil down 15 points. 

Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 1 yuan in Soybeans, up 1 in Corn, up 29 in Soymeal, down 56 in Soyoil, and down 68 in Palm Oil. 

A meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to resolve the ongoing trade war won't take place this month and is more likely to occur in April at the earliest, Bloomberg reported on Thursday citing unnamed sources. 

The Malaysian Palm Oil market was down 29 ringgit at 2,062 (basis May) on news Europe has restricted types of biofuel from palm oil that can be counted towards the EU’s renewable energy goals, hits 3 month low. 

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast has a strong spring storm currently moving through the Plains and Midwest but things look to quiet down by the weekend and last through most of next week, 10 day period. 

The U.S. Delta weather and the Southeast is seen moving towards more of a period of drier weather that looks to last into the end of next week. 

Brazil’s weather forecast continues with general rainfall moving through the growing regions in an ongoing 10 day period. 

Argentina’s weather forecast has scattered rains through the growing areas this week; rains move into the southern growing areas Friday and into the weekend; another front has rains for the northern two-thirds of the growing areas the first half of next week. 

In deliveries, Soymeal totaled 42 lots; Soyoil ZERO; Rice ZERO; Corn 163; HRW Wheat 12 contracts; Oats 12; Soybeans 222; SRW Wheat 9, and; HRS Wheat ZERO. 

The player sheet had funds net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 8,000 Corn; net bought 5,000 contracts of Soybeans; bought 3,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net sold 1,000 Soyoil. 

We estimate Managed Money net short 81,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 197,000 Corn; net short 78,000 contracts of Soybeans; short 46,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net long 17,000 Soyoil.  

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 910 contracts; HRW Wheat up 3,400; Corn up 14,100; Soybeans down 960 contracts; Soymeal down 120 lots, and; Soyoil down 850 lots. 

There were changes in registrations (SRW Wheat down 6 contracts; Oats down 1; Corn down 57; Soymeal down 18; HRW Wheat down 8)---Registrations total 180 contracts for SRW Wheat; 13 Oats; Corn 2,084; Soybeans 1,499; Soyoil 3,547 lots; Soymeal 342; Rice 172; HRW Wheat 14, and; HRS Wheat 938 contracts. 

TODAY-----WEEKLY EXPORT SALES---LAST TRADING DAY MARCH FUTURES--- 

In tender activity---Jordan seeks 120,000t optional-origin wheat---S. Korea seeks 50,000t U.S. wheat, 30,800t Australian---Algeria bought 450,000t optional-origin wheat---Tunisia bought 134,000t optional-origin wheat---S. Korea bought 60,000t U.S. corn---Iran bought 200,000t optional-origin corn, 200,000t soymeal--- 

U.S. ethanol production for the week ended March 8th averaged 1.005 mil barrels per day (down 1.86% versus a week ago, down 1.95% versus a year ago); stocks totaled 23.731 mil barrels (down 2.18% versus a week ago, down 2.27% versus last year); corn use for the week was 103.7 mil bu (105.7 mil last week and versus the 106.4 mil bu needed to meet USDA projections). 

U.S. farmers are expected to plant 91.475 million acres of corn in 2019 and 84.263 million acres of soybeans, according to Allendale Inc; all U.S. wheat plantings seen at 47.414 million acres. 

Wire story reports Chicago-traded futures have endured a rough few weeks, and while it is not the only explanation, the lack of a trade deal between the United States and China has likely been an anchor on prices; as the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, China’s presence on that front is vital, especially with record U.S. stockpiles waiting to find a home; however, the market has also been expecting China to buy U.S. corn, wheat, and other agricultural products, which largely has not happened yet; China has been relatively insignificant in U.S. corn and wheat trade for about five years now, but the U.S. sorghum market depends on Chinese purchases 

  • CME RAISES WHEAT FUTURES (W) MARGINS BY 8 PERCENT TO $1,350 PER CONTRACT FROM $1,250 FOR MARCH 2019
  • THE NEW MARGINS ARE EFFECTIVE FROM MARCH 14, 2019 

Weekly U.S. poultry stats had eggs set up 2%, chicks placed up 1% versus the comparable week a year ago. 

Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives gave a cool reception to the replacement for the North American Free Trade Agreement on Wednesday as the top U.S. trade negotiator opened a campaign to win broad support for the accord in Congress. 

Selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in Mexico

---Production of feed grains is expected to increase slightly over the review period, due in part to government incentive programs; consumption continues its steady growth trends, with expansion in the animal feed sector driving higher growth for feed grains than for food grains; Mexico continues to be an excellent market for U.S. grain exports 

Selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in China

---China’s 2019 chicken meat production is forecast at 12.65 million metric tons, representing 8-percent year on year growth; this increase is due primarily to the African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak pushing consumers away from pork and towards poultry; due to unmet domestic demand, 2019 Chinese imports will grow by 32-percent to 450,000 MT, with the growth coming primarily from Brazil, Thailand, Poland, and Russia; exports are expected to remain steady at 455,000 MT as Chinese exporters fight to maintain market share overseas 

Argentina's wheat planting area will rise again in 2019/20, industry experts said, which could mean another bumper harvest after a record wheat crop last season; the area could reach up to 6.9 million hectares which would be the fourth consecutive increase and a rise from 6.3 million hectares in the 2018/19 season when the country produced a record 19.5 million tons of wheat. 

Ukraine's grain exports have reached 34.3 million tons so far in the 2018/19 season compared with 27.9 million tons at the same time last season, the agriculture ministry said; the ministry said exports could rise to around 49 million tons in the season that ends in June, up from 39.4 million the season before.

  • ANALYST PROAGRO REVISES UP UKRAINE 2019 GRAIN HARVEST TO 70.6 MILLION T FROM PREVIOUS 69.6 MILLION T
  • PROAGRO RAISES UKRAINE 2019 WHEAT HARVEST FORECAST TO 28.3 MILLION T FROM PREVIOUS 27.6 MILLION T
  • UKRAINE 2019 CORN CROP SEEN AT 31.2 MILLION T VERSUS 35.6 MILLION T IN 2018 - PROAGRO
  • UKRAINE 2019 RAPESEED HARVEST SEEN AT 3.69 MILLION T VERSUS 2.75 MILLION T IN 2018 - PROAGRO 

Farming agency FranceAgriMer raised sharply its forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the European Union in 2018/19 and said there was scope for more upgrades as competitively priced French wheat draws late-season demand from importers. 

Hot weather will linger in Australia for at least another three months, the country's meteorology bureau said, piling pressure on the rural sector in one of the world's top exporters of commodities such as wheat. 

India's edible vegetable imports were 18% lower in 1Q of 2018-19 but the US Department of Agriculture is still expecting total year imports to be up 14% on year at 15.8 million metric tons; however, it notes that although international edible oil prices are softening, a higher import duty coupled with a depreciating Indian currency may limit any additional imports.