2020 Stock Index And Commodity Market Outlook

by AFS Archer Financial Svcs | Feb 05, 2020
By Blake Robben
To learn more about Blake, click here

This year started out with a bang when on the evening of Wednesday January 8th the Iranian military launched a strategic strike on U.S. forces in Iraq.  It was strategic in the sense they apparently purposely tried to miss American troops to prevent a retaliation. There was a temporary spike to the upside on this news. However, since then, their main export (crude oil) is down almost 25% from the strike high 65.40.  It has been a steady downtrend and currently the market is fighting to hold the psychological $50.00 level.  If this level is breached look for a test of 45.00, and so long as bear forces prevail, expect a trading range in the coming weeks between 45.00-55.00.

Also, with OPEC holding an emergency meeting this week, focus on price action after any possible production cut. Currently 55.00 is major psychological and technical resistance.  Contact me for key intraday levels.  I use intraday charts with proprietary moving averages and pivot points in my efforts to predict major turning points in all markets. 

Stock index futures caught the coronavirus bug, correcting almost 4% since the recent swing highs. Since last Fridays lows, NASDAQ futures made new highs and the S&P 500 is just shy of its old highs.  Currently, both markets are backing and filling, perhaps digesting its recent mammoth gains.  A lot of feel good emotions are pushing this market higher at the moment. The 3300 for S&P 500 futures is a key level to hold in order to keep bull forces alive.  Contact me for NASDAQ numbers. This market is currently in an ultra-volatile mode. 

Long term charts are suggesting this market is putting in a long term base. The next major upside objective is a close above 1600.  The market needs to hold the psychological 1500 level in order to keep bull forces alive.  In my opinion, the yellow metal has lost some of its investing luster of late.  This current rally in prices doesn’t feel as enthusiastic as the last bull run from October of 2008 to October of 2011 when prices rallied 181%.   Furthermore, I believe there needs to be a “hot money” sponsor to take us to my long term objective of 2500, so long as the Federal Reserve never raises interest rates again. Currently, the combined debt load of this economy stands at 40 trillion dollars; that’s U.S. government, corporate and consumer debt combined.  A tiny increase of 50 basis points on the fed funds rate means an extra 200 billion dollars in interest payments for all debtors. 

​Please contact me for any assistance you may need. Good trading and thank you!
Phone: 312.242.7990 
Email: Blake.Robben@archerfinancials.com

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. Past results are not indicative of future results or performance. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.