By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer will talk with their Chinese counterparts later today, but “complicated issues” remain.
Initial jobless claims increased 8,000 to 216,000 in the week ended July 13, which is in line with expectations.
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve business outlook survey soared to a 2-month high and jumped by the most in a decade. The outlook survey advanced to 21.8 in June, which significantly beat expectations of 5.
The 9:00 central time June leading indicator index is expected to be up .1%,
My view remains that the global reflation scenario is on track and easier credit conditions from most of the world’s central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are coming and will be the dominant fundamental that supports stock index futures in the long term.
There was only limited support for the U.S. dollar on news that the Philadelphia Federal Reserve said its manufacturing business outlook came in stronger than anticipated.
Interest rate differential expectations are turning slightly bearish for the U.S. dollar.
The British pound is higher, as U.K. retail sales recovered unexpectedly in June and the European Union's Chief Brexit negotiator suggested he is open to work on alternative plans for the Irish border issue.
Retail sales in the U.K. increased 1.0% in June when analysts forecast a decline of 0.3%.
Futures came under pressure when the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s business outlook survey was released.
New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams will speak at 1:15.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is almost a 100% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points or more at its July 30-31 policy meeting. A second and possibly a third rate cut is anticipated by financial futures markets later this year.
In the longer term, higher prices are likely for futures, as most major central banks are likely to embark on a new round of easier credit conditions.
September 19 S&P 500
Support 2971.00 Resistance 3001.00
September 19 U.S. Dollar Index
Support 96.650 Resistance 97.030
September 19 Euro Currency
Support 1.12470 Resistance 1.12980
September 19 Japanese Yen
Support .92950 Resistance .93400
September 19 Canadian Dollar
Support .76520 Resistance .76830
September 19 Australian Dollar
Support .7010 Resistance .7062
September 19 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds
Support 154^4 Resistance 155^8
August 19 Gold
Support 1412.0 Resistance 1433.0
September 19 Copper
Support 2.6900 Resistance 2.7200
September 19 Crude Oil
Support 56.34 Resistance 57.65
For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at firstname.lastname@example.org. Thank you.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.
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The risk of loss in trading futures and options on futures can be substantial. Each investor must carefully consider whether this type of investment is appropriate for them. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.