By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS
U.S. stock index futures are holding up well in spite of yesterday’s comments from President Donald Trump when he suggested talks between Washington and Beijing have stalled and warned that he could apply new tariffs on $325 billion worth of China made goods in the coming months.
Housing starts fell 0.9% in June from the prior month to1.253 million when 1.260 were expected. Residential building permits, which can signal how much construction is in the pipeline, declined 6.1% from May to an annual rate of 1.220 million, which was the biggest monthly drop since March 2016. Analysts anticipated permits would total 1.300 million.
At 1:00 central time the Federal Reserve will release its “Beige Book” on the economy. This book, which is a snapshot of business conditions around the country, is produced approximately two weeks before the monetary policy meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee.
My view remains that the global reflation scenario is on track and easier credit conditions from most of the world’s central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are coming and will be the dominant fundamental that supports stock index futures in the long term.
The British pound fell to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar since June of 2017 due to Brexit uncertainties and increasing prospects of easier credit policies from the Bank of England.
Canada's consumer price index increased 2.0% on a year-over-year basis in June, which compared with a 2.4% gain in the previous month. Market expectations were for a 1.9% rise in June.
Canada's factory sector rebounded as expected in May. Manufacturing sales increased 1.6% in May from the previous month, which matched market expectations.
Futures are mostly higher with most of the gains in the 30 year Treasury bond futures. Some of the buying can be attributed to a less optimistic outlook for a U.S.-China trade deal.
Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George will deliver a speech on the economic outlook at the 2019 Agricultural Symposium in Kansas City, Missouri at 11:30.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is almost a 100% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points or more at its July 30-31 policy meeting. A second rate cut is anticipated by financial futures markets later this year.
In the longer term, higher prices are likely for futures, as most major central banks are likely to embark on a new round of accommodation.
September 19 S&P 500
Support 3001.00 Resistance 3017.00
September 19 U.S. Dollar Index
Support 96.880 Resistance 97.120
September 19 Euro Currency
Support 1.12450 Resistance 1.12840
September 19 Japanese Yen
Support .92660 Resistance .92980
September 19 Canadian Dollar
Support .76400 Resistance .76880
September 19 Australian Dollar
Support .7005 Resistance .7041
September 19 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds
Support 153^20 Resistance 154^18
August 19 Gold
Support 1400.0 Resistance 1417.0
September 19 Copper
Support 2.6800 Resistance 2.7100
August 19 Crude Oil
Support 57.30 Resistance 58.88
For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at email@example.com. Thank you.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.
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This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but merely a collection of information related to Archer Financial services and commodities trading provided by Archer Financial services. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such element, nor with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained.
The risk of loss in trading futures and options on futures can be substantial. Each investor must carefully consider whether this type of investment is appropriate for them. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.