By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS
U.S. stock futures fell as investors worry about prospects of weakening earnings from the continuing trade dispute between the U.S. and China.
The June National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index was 103.3, which compares to expectations of 104. The index was 105.0 in May.
The 9:00 central time May Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is anticipated to be 7.4 million.
My view remains that the global reflation scenario is on track and easier credit conditions from most of the world’s central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are coming and will be the dominant fundamental that supports stock index futures in the long term.
The U.S. dollar index is at a three-week high due to the belief that the Federal Open Market Committee may be slightly less aggressive in lowering its fed funds rate this year in light of last Friday’s strong U.S. jobs data.
The euro currency is a little lower due to concerns about the banking industry in the euro zone.
The British pound hit a six-month low, as worries remain about the British economy, Brexit uncertainties and expectations that the Bank of England will lower interest rates next year.
The Canadian dollar is lower in spite of news that Canadian housing starts surged in June to their highest level in a year.
Federal Reserve speakers today are St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard at 9:00, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic at 12:00 and Federal Reserve Board of Governors Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles at 1:00.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is almost a 100% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points or more at its July 30-31 policy meeting. A second rate cut is anticipated by financial futures markets later this year.
In the longer term, higher prices are likely for futures, as most major central banks are likely to embark on a new round of accommodation.
I saw three bearish articles on gold today, which suggests we have seen enough of a correction in this bull market for gold.
I will be out of the office on Wednesday, July 10.
September 19 S&P 500
Support 2959.00 Resistance 2983.00
September 19 U.S. Dollar Index
Support 96.900 Resistance 97.240
September 19 Euro Currency
Support 1.12500 Resistance 1.12910
September 19 Japanese Yen
Support .92180 Resistance .92530
September 19 Canadian Dollar
Support .76480 Resistance .76780
September 19 Australian Dollar
Support .6938 Resistance .6994
September 19 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds
Support 154^22 Resistance 155^16
August 19 Gold
Support 1384.0 Resistance 1403.0
September 19 Copper
Support 2.6200 Resistance 2.6700
August 19 Crude Oil
Support 57.21 Resistance 58.34
For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at email@example.com. Thank you.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.
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