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S&P 500 Futures at New Record Highs

by Archer Financial Services | Jul 03, 2019

By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS   

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

S&P 500 futures advanced to another record high, as traders focus on the bullish influence of lower global interest rates and less on the negative influence of the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions.

The Automatic Data Processing employment change report showed 102,000 private-sector jobs were created in June when economists expected 140,000 new jobs.    

Initial jobless claims decreased 8,000 to 221,000 in the week ended June 29. Economists had expected 225,000 new claims.  

The 8:45 central time June PMI services index is expected to be 50.7.

The 9:00 May factory orders report is anticipated to show a .5% decline and the 9:00 June Institute for Supply Management non-manufacturing index is estimated to be 55.8.

My view remains that the global reflation scenario is on track and easier credit conditions from most of the world’s central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are coming and will be the dominant fundamental that supports stock index futures in the long term.
 

CURRENCY FUTURES

The euro currency advanced following upbeat euro zone June services PMI data.

Gains were limited by news that IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde has been nominated to head the European Central Bank and may pursue dovish monetary policies.

The Canadian dollar is higher after a report showed Canada's trade balance unexpectedly moved into a surplus position in May for the first time in almost a year.
 

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

The 30 year Treasury bond futures advanced to the highest level since October 2017.

Financial futures markets are predicting there is almost a 100% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points or more at its July 30-31 policy meeting. A second and possibly a third rate cut is anticipated by financial futures markets later this year.

In the longer term, higher prices are likely for futures, as most major central banks are likely to embark on a new round of accommodation.
 

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

September 19 S&P 500

Support    2970.00      Resistance    2993.00

September 19 U.S. Dollar Index

Support    96.110        Resistance    96.490

September 19 Euro Currency

Support    1.13290      Resistance    1.13770

September 19 Japanese Yen

Support    .93140        Resistance    .93550

September 19 Canadian Dollar

Support    .76260        Resistance    .76730

September 19 Australian Dollar

Support    .6998          Resistance    .7049

September 19 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support    156^0         Resistance     156^26

August 19 Gold

Support    1414.0        Resistance     1443.0

September 19 Copper

Support    2.6300        Resistance     2.6850

August 19 Crude Oil

Support    55.93          Resistance     57.34



For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911  or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff.  Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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