By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS
After new record highs for the S&P 500 yesterday, stock index futures are lower today, as trade talk euphoria fades.
My view remains that the global reflation scenario is on track and easier credit conditions from most of the world’s central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are coming and will be the dominant fundamental that supports stock index futures in the long term.
The U.S. dollar is lower as optimism from a weekend trade truce between the U.S. and China wanes.
The euro currency advanced after a source at the European Central Bank, who asked not to be identified, said the ECB sees "no rush" for a rate cut when the central bank meets on July 25.
The source said the central bank is currently leaning toward easier credit at the following meeting in September when it will have updated economic forecasts.
The British pound is lower after a report showed construction output fell at the steepest rate since April 2009.
The Australian dollar is higher after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates, as expected, but indicated a more balanced outlook. The quarter-point reduction took cash rates to an all-time low of 1%.
According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the U.S. is officially in its longest expansion period, breaking the record of 120 months of economic growth that took place from March 1991 to March 2001.
U.S. Treasury yields fell after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates.
At 10:00 central time Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester will deliver a speech on the economic outlook at the European Economics and Financial Centre in London, England.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is almost a 100% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points or more at its July 30-31 policy meeting. A second and possibly a third rate cut is anticipated by financial futures markets later this year.
In the longer term, higher prices are likely for futures, as most major central banks are likely to embark on a new round of accommodation.
September 19 S&P 500
Support 2957.00 Resistance 2980.00
September 19 U.S. Dollar Index
Support 96.110 Resistance 96.490
September 19 Euro Currency
Support 1.13350 Resistance 1.13970
September 19 Japanese Yen
Support .92630 Resistance .93070
September 19 Canadian Dollar
Support .76170 Resistance .76460
September 19 Australian Dollar
Support .6965 Resistance .7026
September 19 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds
Support 155^0 Resistance 155^26
August 19 Gold
Support 1384.0 Resistance 1402.0
September 19 Copper
Support 2.6550 Resistance 2.7050
August 19 Crude Oil
Support 58.13 Resistance 59.66
For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at firstname.lastname@example.org. Thank you.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.
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This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but merely a collection of information related to Archer Financial services and commodities trading provided by Archer Financial services. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such element, nor with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained.
The risk of loss in trading futures and options on futures can be substantial. Each investor must carefully consider whether this type of investment is appropriate for them. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.