Nonfarm Payrolls Up 263,000

by Archer Financial Services | May 03, 2019

By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS   


U.S. stock index futures advanced when the April employment report was released. The U.S. created 263,000 new jobs in April when an increase of 180,000 was expected and the unemployment rate fell to a 49-year low to 3.6%, which compares to the anticipated 3.8%.

The amount of money the average worker earns increased 6 cents to $27.77 an hour last month. The gain in pay in the past 12 months was unchanged at 3.2% when 3.3% wage growth was estimated.

Wholesale inventories in March were unchanged when an increase of .3% was expected.

The 8:45 central time April PMI services index is expected to be 52.9 and the 9:00 April Institute for Supply Management non-manufacturing index is anticipated to be 57.3.

My view remains that the global reflation scenario is on track and easier credit conditions from most of the world’s central banks are coming and will be the dominant fundamental that supports stock index futures in the long term.


The U.S. dollar was supported by the on-balance stronger than expected U.S. employment report.

The euro is lower in spite of news that the annual rate of consumer price inflation in the euro zone rose more sharply than expected in April.

The European Union's statistics agency said consumer prices were 1.7% higher in April than a year ago, which is a pickup in the annual rate of inflation from 1.4% in March.  The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile prices including food and energy, increased to 1.2% from 0.8% in March, hitting its highest level since October 2018. 

The Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar are higher due to better crude oil prices.



Futures are higher in spite of the bearish on-balance U.S. employment numbers, which is an indication that follow-through gains are likely for futures in the short term.

Federal Reserve speakers today are Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans at 9:15, Federal Reserve Board of Governors Vice Chairman Richard Clarida at 10:30, New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams at 12:45, Federal Reserve Board of Governors Member Michelle Bowman at 2:00, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard at 6:45 PM, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly at 6:45, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan at 6:45 and Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester at 6:45.

Financial futures are predicting there is a 49% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points, or more at its December 11 policy meeting. Yesterday the probability was 54%.



June 19 S&P 500

Support    2913.00      Resistance    2941.00

June 19 U.S. Dollar Index

Support    97.460        Resistance    97.950

June 19 Euro Currency

Support    1.11680      Resistance    1.12280

June 19 Japanese Yen

Support    .89710        Resistance    .90100

June 19 Canadian Dollar

Support    .74150        Resistance    .74620

June 19 Australian Dollar

Support    .6986          Resistance    .7025

June 19 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support    146^16       Resistance     147^24

June 19 Gold

Support    1267.0        Resistance    1286.0

July 19 Copper

Support    2.7700        Resistance    2.8200

June 19 Crude Oil

Support    61.21          Resistance    63.33

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911  or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff.  Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.