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S&P 500 Index at a New Record High

by Archer Financial Services | Apr 29, 2019

By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS   

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

The S&P 500 index advanced to a new record high today.

Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.9% in March, which compares to expectations of a gain of .7% and March personal income grew more slowly, up 0.1% on the month when up .4% was anticipated.

The 9:30 central time April Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing index is expected to be 9.8.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer are scheduled to travel to Beijing today for the latest round of negotiations between the U.S. and China.

Mnuchin, in a television interview today, said he hopes the U.S. and China can finalize a trade agreement with two more rounds of talks.

This week will be another busy week for earnings, with approximately 160 S&P 500 companies reporting.  Analysts now expect profits at S&P 500 companies will fall 0.3%, which is a dramatic improvement from a 2% decline that was estimated at the beginning of the month, according to Refinitiv data.

My view remains that the global reflation scenario is on track and easier credit conditions from most of the world’s central banks are coming and will be the dominant fundamental that supports stock index futures in the long term.

 

CURRENCY FUTURES

The U.S. dollar is higher and the euro currency is lower after a report showed manufacturers in the euro zone grew more pessimistic about their prospects than at any other time since late 2014 in April. 

Euro zone economic sentiment weakened for a tenth consecutive month in April and at a faster-than-expected pace, according to a survey from the European Commission.

The economic sentiment index decreased to 104 from 105.6 in March when economists had expected 105. In addition, the industrial confidence index fell sharply to -4.1 from -1.6, while the services measure was steady at 11.5.

 

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for May 1. No change in the fed funds rate is expected at that meeting.

Financial futures are predicting there is a 65% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points, or more at its December 11 policy meeting. On Friday the probability was 67%.

While it appears that the U.S. economy is holding up relatively well, overseas economies, especially in the euro zone, have been weak.

 

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

June 19 S&P 500

Support    2934.00      Resistance    2951.00

 

June 19 U.S. Dollar Index

Support    97.660        Resistance    97.890

 

June 19 Euro Currency

Support    1.11830      Resistance    1.12130

 

June 19 Japanese Yen

Support    .89650        Resistance    .89970

 

June 19 Canadian Dollar

Support    .74180        Resistance    .74500

 

June 19 Australian Dollar

Support    .7040          Resistance    .7070

 

June 19 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support    146^28       Resistance     147^24

 

June 19 Gold

Support    1277.0        Resistance    1292.0

 

July 19 Copper

Support    2.8700        Resistance    2.9100

 

June 19 Crude Oil

Support    62.21          Resistance    63.55


For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911  or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff.  Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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