US Bank Earnings Propel Stock Index Futures Higher

by AFS Archer Financial Svcs | Apr 12, 2019

By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS   


U.S. stock index futures got a boost from stronger Chinese trade data, which showed a substantial recovery in exports.  Exports increased 14.2% in March over the same month last year after a large decline in January and February. In addition, Chinese lending was substantially higher. 

There were follow-through gains when major U.S. banks kicked off the first quarter earnings season with strong numbers.  

U.S. import prices were up 0.6% in March from the previous month when economists predicted an increase of a 0.5%.    

The 9:00 central time April consumer sentiment index is expected to be 98.

My view is that the global reflation story remains on track and easier credit conditions from most of the world’s central banks are coming and will be the dominant fundamental that supports stock index futures in the long term.


The U.S. dollar is lower in spite of mostly bullish news, including the better than anticipated earnings reports from major U.S. banks. 

The euro currency is higher after news that euro zone industrial production fell 0.2% in March, which was better than the 0.5% decrease expected by economists. 

The euro is higher even though Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann said Germany's economy, the largest in the euro zone, could grow by less than 1% this year as trade disputes and Brexit uncertainty weighs on investment.

The British pound is higher after British finance minister Philip Hammond said he expects a Brexit agreement in the next couple of months. 

Higher crude oil prices supported the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar. 


Treasury yields increased and futures declined after the stronger-than-expected increase in China's exports helped to dampen global growth fears.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak again today on the economy at the House of Representatives Democrat’s three day annual retreat in Leesburg, Virginia.

Financial futures are predicting there is a 40% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points or more at its December 11 policy meeting. Yesterday the probability was 49%.

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911  or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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