By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS
Stock index futures are a little lower, as global growth concerns outweigh the positive Mueller outcome for President Donald Trump. Also, there was some support from better than expected economic data from Germany and optimism that the U.S. and China are expected to strike a trade deal sometime in April.
White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders on Saturday said Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer are headed to Beijing for additional talks on Thursday.
The Chicago Federal Reserve national activity index in February was negative .29 when .10 was expected.
The 9:30 central time March Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing index is anticipated to be 10.
I believe easier credit conditions from most of the world’s central banks are coming and will be the dominant fundamental that supports stock index futures in the long term.
The U.S. dollar declined and the euro currency advanced on news that Germany’s Ifo Institute’s business climate index unexpectedly improved in March following six straight months of decline. The index showed stronger than anticipated outlooks for business climate, current conditions and expectations.
Its business climate index increased to 99.6 from an upwardly revised 98.7 in the previous month. This beats a consensus forecast for a reading of 98.5.
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker said the central bank may hike interest rates this year even as risks around the outlook have risen. He said the U.S. economic outlook is “pretty good.”
Financial futures markets are not in sync, predicting there is a 44% probability that the fed funds rate will remain unchanged at the current level of 2.25%-2.50% this year. There is a 56% chance for a 25 basis point, or more decline in the fed funds rate in 2019.
June 19 S&P 500
Support 2788.00 Resistance 2822.00
June 19 U.S. Dollar Index
Support 95.880 Resistance 96.240
June 19 Euro Currency
Support 1.13590 Resistance 1.14150
June 19 Japanese Yen
Support .91240 Resistance .91880
June 19 Canadian Dollar
Support .74520 Resistance .74860
June 19 Australian Dollar
Support .7071 Resistance .7131
June 19 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds
Support 148^0 Resistance 149^2
April 19 Gold
Support 1308.0 Resistance 1324.0
May 19 Copper
Support 2.8300 Resistance 2.860
May 19 Crude Oil
Support 58.11 Resistance 59.55
For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at email@example.com. Thank you.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.
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