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U.S. - China Trade Talks Optimism Remains

by Archer Financial Services | Mar 25, 2019

By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS   
 

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

Stock index futures are a little lower, as global growth concerns outweigh the positive Mueller outcome for President Donald Trump. Also, there was some support from better than expected economic data from Germany and optimism that the U.S. and China are expected to strike a trade deal sometime in April.

White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders on Saturday said Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer are headed to Beijing for additional talks on Thursday.

The Chicago Federal Reserve national activity index in February was negative .29 when .10 was expected.

The 9:30 central time March Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing index is anticipated to be 10.

I believe easier credit conditions from most of the world’s central banks are coming and will be the dominant fundamental that supports stock index futures in the long term.

 

CURRENCY FUTURES

The U.S. dollar declined and the euro currency advanced on news that Germany’s Ifo Institute’s business climate index unexpectedly improved in March following six straight months of decline. The index showed stronger than anticipated outlooks for business climate, current conditions and expectations.

Its business climate index increased to 99.6 from an upwardly revised 98.7 in the previous month. This beats a consensus forecast for a reading of 98.5.

 

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker said the central bank may hike interest rates this year even as risks around the outlook have risen. He said the U.S. economic outlook is “pretty good.”  

Financial futures markets are not in sync, predicting there is a 44% probability that the fed funds rate will remain unchanged at the current level of 2.25%-2.50% this year. There is a 56% chance for a 25 basis point, or more decline in the fed funds rate in 2019.

 

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

 

June 19 S&P 500

Support    2788.00      Resistance    2822.00

 

June 19 U.S. Dollar Index

Support    95.880        Resistance    96.240

 

June 19 Euro Currency

Support    1.13590      Resistance    1.14150

 

June 19 Japanese Yen

Support    .91240        Resistance    .91880

 

June 19 Canadian Dollar

Support    .74520        Resistance    .74860

 

June 19 Australian Dollar

Support    .7071          Resistance    .7131

 

June 19 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support    148^0         Resistance     149^2

 

April 19 Gold

Support    1308.0        Resistance    1324.0

 

May 19 Copper

Support    2.8300        Resistance    2.860

  

May 19 Crude Oil

Support    58.11          Resistance    59.55


For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911  or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff.  Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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