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Stock Index Futures Higher on Limited News

by Archer Financial Services | Mar 13, 2019

By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS   

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

The U.S. producer price index, which is a measure of the prices businesses receive for their goods and services, increased 0.1% in February from a month ago. The median estimate called for a .2% increase.

The producer price index, excluding the often volatile food and energy categories, was up 0.1% in February from the prior month when a gain of .2% was anticipated.

U.S. durable goods orders increased 0.4% in January from the prior month, which is the third consecutive monthly gain. Economists expected a 0.6% decline for the month. Durable goods are manufactured products intended to last at least three years.

The March Atlanta Federal Reserve business inflation expectations report will be released at 9:00 central time. Last month the figure was1.9%.

The 9:00 January construction spending report is expected to show a gain of .3%.

There is no obvious news that would account for today’s gains in stock index futures.

Since the lows were made in late December, stock index futures have been performing better than the news would suggest, which should be viewed as a sign of long term strength.

 

CURRENCY FUTURES

The U.S. dollar declined as financial futures markets are showing the Federal Open Market Committee may be moving toward accommodation this year.

The euro currency firmed on news that industrial production in the euro zone increased.

The European Union's statistics agency said output from factories, mines and utilities was 1.4% higher in January than in December. This compares to the estimate of a 1.0% increase.

The British Parliament rejected Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal for a second time.

 

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

The Treasury will auction 30 year bonds today.

Financial futures markets are predicting a 78% probability that the fed funds rate will remain unchanged at the current level of 2.25%-2.50% this year. There is a 22% chance for a 25 basis point decline in 2019.

Currently, futures are caught between the bullish influence of a weakening global economy and the bearish influence of increased optimism for a U.S.-China trade agreement.

A U.S.-China trade deal, or strong hint of one, would be a catalyst to take futures lower.

 

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

June 19 S&P 500

Support    2785.00      Resistance    2815.00

 

June 19 U.S. Dollar Index

Support    96.170        Resistance    96.500

 

June 19 Euro Currency

Support    1.13580      Resistance    1.14000

 

June 19 Japanese Yen

Support    .90310       Resistance    .90710

 

June 19 Canadian Dollar

Support    .74880       Resistance    .75170

 

June 19 Australian Dollar

Support    .7053         Resistance    .7098

 

June 19 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support    145^20      Resistance     146^16

 

April 19 Gold

Support    1298.0       Resistance    1316.0

 

May 19 Copper

Support    2.9100       Resistance    2.9450

 

April 19 Crude Oil

Support    56.88         Resistance    58.13


For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911  or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff.  Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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