By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS
Global equity markets rebounded on China stimulus hopes. China’s central bank on Sunday pledged to further support the slowing Chinese economy by increasing loans and lowering borrowing costs. The exception is the Dow, which is being dragged down by sharply lower prices for one Dow component company.
U.S. retail sales unexpectedly increased in January. The Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.2% when economists had forecast retail sales to be unchanged.
The 9:00 central time December business inventories report is expected to show an increase of .6%.
At 6:00 this evening, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will give videotaped welcoming remarks at the National Community Reinvestment Coalition's Just Economy Conference in Washington, D.C.
Since the lows were made in late December, stock index futures have been performing better than the news would suggest, which should be viewed as a sign of long term strength.
The U.S. dollar advanced only slightly when the stronger than expected U.S. retail sales report was released, which suggests lower prices from current levels today.
Traders of the British pound are positioning for another Brexit filled week. The final vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal is due to take place in the British Parliament tomorrow. However, there are reports that the vote could be delayed.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Sunday evening that the U.S. central bank does “not feel any hurry” to change the level of interest rates, as it watches how a slowing global economy affects the U.S. He also said “Our interest rate policy is in a very good place right now.”
The Treasury will auction three year notes today.
Financial futures markets are predicting an 85% probability that the fed funds rate will remain unchanged at the current level of 2.25%-2.50% this year. There is a 15% chance for a 25 basis point decline in 2019.
A U.S.-China trade agreement, or strong hint of one, would be a catalyst to take futures lower.
June 19 S&P 500
Support 2738.00 Resistance 2766.00
March 19 U.S. Dollar Index
Support 97.110 Resistance 97.730
March 19 Euro Currency
Support 1.12210 Resistance 1.12730
March 19 Japanese Yen
Support .89810 Resistance .90320
March 19 Canadian Dollar
Support .74320 Resistance .74720
March 19 Australian Dollar
Support .7021 Resistance .7072
June 19 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds
Support 145^10 Resistance 146^2
April 19 Gold
Support 1283.0 Resistance 1304.0
May 19 Copper
Support 2.8800 Resistance 2.9150
April 19 Crude Oil
Support 55.85 Resistance 57.13
For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at firstname.lastname@example.org. Thank you.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.
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