U.S.-China Trade Optimism Propels Stock Index Futures Higher

by Archer Financial Services | Mar 04, 2019

By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS   


Stock index futures advanced due to growing optimism that the U.S. and China will reach a trade agreement later this month, possibly at a summit around March 27, given the progress in talks between the two countries.

A senior Chinese official said the “substantive progress” China and the U.S. made in their trade talks has been “well received” in both countries and around the world.

The 9:00 December construction spending report is expected to show a .3% increase.

Stock index futures have been performing better than the news would suggest since the lows were made in late December, which should be viewed as a sign of long term strength.



The U.S. dollar firmed as investors search for higher yields.

The gap between the benchmark 10 year yields in the U.S. and Germany has widened to near a three month high of 257 basis points, which compares with 240 basis points at the start of this year.

The European Central Bank will hold its regularly scheduled policy meeting on Thursday. It is anticipated that ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver dovish commentary.

The British pound is higher in spite of news that U.K. construction sector activity contracted in February for the first time since March 2018, falling to 49.5 from 50.6 in January. Economists had forecast 50.5.

The Japanese yen firmed after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the Japanese economy has escaped deflation and the central bank would convey its exit strategy from its stimulus program at the appropriate time.

The Australian dollar is higher due to increased optimism for a formal U.S.-China trade agreement.

Longer term, the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar, the “commodity currencies,” will probably trend higher, as prices for most industrial commodities are likely to advance.



Financial futures markets are predicting a 94% probability that the fed funds rate will remain unchanged at the current level of 2.25%-2.50% this year and there is a 6% chance for a 25 basis point increase in 2019.

The thirty year Treasury bond futures are testing the bottom of a broad trading range that started in the first week in January.

A U.S.-China trade agreement, or strong hint of one, would be a catalyst to take futures lower.



March 19 S&P 500

Support    2806.00      Resistance    2824.00


March 19 U.S. Dollar Index

Support    96.180        Resistance    96.750


March 19 Euro Currency

Support    1.13300      Resistance    1.13970


March 19 Japanese Yen

Support    .89290        Resistance    .89630


March 19 Canadian Dollar

Support    .75030        Resistance    .75450


March 19 Australian Dollar

Support    .7071          Resistance    .7121


March 19 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support    144^4         Resistance    144^28


April 19 Gold

Support    1283.0        Resistance    1301.0


May 19 Copper

Support    2.8950        Resistance    2.9600


April 19 Crude Oil

Support    55.72          Resistance    57.34

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911  or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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