Focus is on U.S.-China Trade Talks this Week

by Archer Financial Services | Feb 11, 2019

By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS   


U.S. stock index futures advanced as the latest trade talks between the U.S. and China began in Beijing.

These talks will begin with working level discussions from Monday through Wednesday. Higher principal level discussions will take place Thursday and Friday with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

Some analysts are becoming more upbeat that a deal can be reached by the March 1 deadline.    

With fourth quarter earnings season nearing an end, 71.5% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported results have topped profit estimates, according to data from Refinitiv.

Stock index futures have been performing better than the news would suggest since the lows were made in late December.



The U.S. dollar advanced again by default due to weaker economic data from Europe.

The British pound fell on news that the U.K. economy expanded at its slowest annual rate in six years in 2018.

Economic growth in the U.K. last year was 1.4%, which is down from 1.8% in 2017. 

This is another example of a series of downbeat economic reports coming out of Europe.



Flight to quality longs are being liquidated due to optimism that progress will be made in the U.S.-China trade talks this week.

Financial futures markets are predicting a 79% probability that the fed funds rate will remain unchanged at the current level of 2.25%-2.50% this year.

There is a 20% chance of reduction in the fed funds rate by 25 basis points in 2019 and there is a 1% probability of a 25 basis point increase this year.

The thirty year Treasury bond futures have remained in a broad trading range since the first week in January. A U.S.-China trade agreement, or hint of one, would be the catalyst to take futures lower.



March 19 S&P 500

Support    2700.00      Resistance    2728.00


March 19 U.S. Dollar Index

Support    96.360        Resistance    96.710


March 19 Euro Currency

Support    1.13210      Resistance    1.13710


March 19 Japanese Yen

Support    .90730        Resistance    .91450


March 19 Canadian Dollar

Support    .75190        Resistance    .75550


March 19 Australian Dollar

Support    .7063          Resistance    .7120


March 19 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support    146^0         Resistance    146^30


April 19 Gold

Support    1303.0        Resistance    1319.0


March 19 Copper

Support    2.7700        Resistance    2.8250


March 19 Crude Oil

Support    51.34          Resistance    52.88

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911  or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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