By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS
U.S. stock index futures advanced as the latest trade talks between the U.S. and China began in Beijing.
These talks will begin with working level discussions from Monday through Wednesday. Higher principal level discussions will take place Thursday and Friday with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.
Some analysts are becoming more upbeat that a deal can be reached by the March 1 deadline.
With fourth quarter earnings season nearing an end, 71.5% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported results have topped profit estimates, according to data from Refinitiv.
Stock index futures have been performing better than the news would suggest since the lows were made in late December.
The U.S. dollar advanced again by default due to weaker economic data from Europe.
The British pound fell on news that the U.K. economy expanded at its slowest annual rate in six years in 2018.
Economic growth in the U.K. last year was 1.4%, which is down from 1.8% in 2017.
This is another example of a series of downbeat economic reports coming out of Europe.
Flight to quality longs are being liquidated due to optimism that progress will be made in the U.S.-China trade talks this week.
Financial futures markets are predicting a 79% probability that the fed funds rate will remain unchanged at the current level of 2.25%-2.50% this year.
There is a 20% chance of reduction in the fed funds rate by 25 basis points in 2019 and there is a 1% probability of a 25 basis point increase this year.
The thirty year Treasury bond futures have remained in a broad trading range since the first week in January. A U.S.-China trade agreement, or hint of one, would be the catalyst to take futures lower.
March 19 S&P 500
Support 2700.00 Resistance 2728.00
March 19 U.S. Dollar Index
Support 96.360 Resistance 96.710
March 19 Euro Currency
Support 1.13210 Resistance 1.13710
March 19 Japanese Yen
Support .90730 Resistance .91450
March 19 Canadian Dollar
Support .75190 Resistance .75550
March 19 Australian Dollar
Support .7063 Resistance .7120
March 19 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds
Support 146^0 Resistance 146^30
April 19 Gold
Support 1303.0 Resistance 1319.0
March 19 Copper
Support 2.7700 Resistance 2.8250
March 19 Crude Oil
Support 51.34 Resistance 52.88
For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at firstname.lastname@example.org. Thank you.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.
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