by Dennis Smith
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Cut right to the chase today. Weekly pork export sales were very large, again, at 20,900 MT, up 7% from the 4-week average. Mexico was the largest buyer taking 7,200 MT which explains what we’ve been seeing in the ham market, Japan took 4,600 MT and guess what, China was in for 3,300 MT of U.S. pork last week. This alone should put a positive spin on futures today. Cash was higher and not lower yesterday which should also support the Dec hogs in particular. There’s nothing fancy to report in the volume and open interest from yesterday. Look for a rally today.
In sharp contrast to the pork, beef export sales were lousy last week, reported at 9,100 MT, down 42% from the 4-week average. Shipments were off 12%. Closer to home, my sources are warning of a severe winter storm for next week in the north plains. There’s talk of 12 inches to as much as 24 inches of snow. Feedlots in IA continue to sell cattle with the cash prices actually edging upward on the range. In other words, the low end of the range continues to edge upward. Tuesday’s trade in IA was from 112-116 with the Wed trade occurring from 114-116. The hot beef market seems to be established at $183. Our liquidation target in the Dec LC stands at 11750. The technical road map calls for a rally into early Dec followed by what we believe to be the ever important seasonal low into the middle of Dec. Our upside liquidation target in Jan FC bullish positions is 15200.
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The risk of loss in trading futures and options on futures can be substantial. The author does not guarantee the accuracy of the above information, although it is believed that the sources are reliable and the information accurate. The author assumes no liability or responsibility for direct or indirect, special, consequential or incidental damages or for any other damages relating or arising out of any action taken as a result of any information or advice contained in this commentary. The author disclaims any express or implied liability or responsibility for any action taken, which is solely at the liability and responsibility of the user. In addition, the author of this piece currently trades for his own account and may have financial interest in the following derivative products: (corn, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, lean hogs, live cattle, feeder cattle).
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