By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS
Stock index futures advanced after the U.S. elections divided control of Congress.
History has shown that U.S. equity markets after the midterm elections have a tendency to advance through year-end and into the next year. In addition, the third year of a presidential term is historically the strongest year for stock index futures.
The 2:00 central time September consumer credit report is expected to show a $16.5 billion increase.
In addition to the bullish historical tendencies for stock index futures after the midterm elections, there is the still relatively low interest rate environment that will provide long term underling support.
The U.S. dollar is lower and the euro currency is higher after the U.S. midterm elections cast doubt on further tax cuts.
The euro currency is higher in spite of news that the E.U. government's council of economic experts lowered their growth outlook due to greater global risks.
The currency of the euro zone is higher even though September retail sales in the euro zone were unchanged when an increase of .1% was predicted.
The British pound is higher despite a report that showed U.K. house prices increased at the slowest annual pace in five years.
The Treasury will auction 30 year bonds today.
Today is the first day of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The probability of a fed funds rate hike at the conclusion tomorrow is 7%.
According to the financial futures markets, the probability of a fed funds rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee’s December 19 policy meeting is 80%, which compares to 77% yesterday.
December 18 S&P 500
Support 2742.00 Resistance 2790.00
December 18 U.S. Dollar Index
Support 95.410 Resistance 96.370
December 18 Euro Currency
Support 1.14250 Resistance 1.15590
December 18 Japanese Yen
Support .88030 Resistance .88850
December 18 Canadian Dollar
Support .76010 Resistance .76760
December 18 Australian Dollar
Support .7207 Resistance .7314
December 18 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds
Support 136^20 Resistance 138^6
December 18 Gold
Support 1222.0 Resistance 1241.0
December 18 Copper
Support 2.7250 Resistance 2.7800
December 18 Crude Oil
Support 61.46 Resistance 63.27
For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at email@example.com. Thank you.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.
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