By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS
U.S. stock index futures declined on news that U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased a seasonally adjusted 134,000 in September, the smallest gain in a year, when 180,000 were expected.
The unemployment rate fell to 3.7% from 3.9% in August, the lowest rate since December 1969, according to the Labor Department. The unemployment rate was anticipated to be 3.8%.
Average hourly earnings were up 0.3% on the month and 2.8% on the year, which were both in line with analysts’ expectations.
The Labor Department said it’s possible that employment in some industries was adversely affected by Hurricane Florence, which struck the Carolinas last month.
The 2:00 central time August consumer credit report is estimated show an increase of $15 billion.
Despite of a variety of ongoing geopolitical issues the still relatively low interest rate environment is dominating and remains long term supportive to U.S. stock index futures.
The U.S. dollar is lower in response to the weaker on balance U.S. employment numbers.
Higher crude oil prices supported the “commodity currencies,” the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar.
Also, there was support for the currency of Canada on news that the Canadian economy added more jobs than expected in September. The economy added 63,300 jobs in September when market expectations called for an increase in employment of 25,000.
Canada's jobless rate was 5.9%, matching market expectations and was down slightly from 6.0% in the previous month.
In the overnight trade the thirty year Treasury bond futures fell to the lowest level since August 2014.
Futures are lower today in spite of the bullish weaker than expected U.S. employment report.
Federal Reserve speakers today are Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan 11:30 and Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic, also at 11:30.
According to the financial futures markets, the probability of a fed funds rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee’s December 19 policy meeting is 87%, which compares to 85% yesterday.
The long term trend for futures is lower as the U.S. economy remains strong and the FOMC will likely continue on its tightening path this year and in 2019.
December 18 S&P 500
Support 2896.00 Resistance 2921.00
December 18 U.S. Dollar Index
Support 95.120 Resistance 95.700
December 18 Euro Currency
Support 1.15350 Resistance 1.16110
December 18 Japanese Yen
Support .88010 Resistance .88420
December 18 Canadian Dollar
Support .77210 Resistance .77770
December 18 Australian Dollar
Support .7051 Resistance .7101
December 18 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds
Support 137^2 Resistance 138^4
December 18 Gold
Support 1199.0 Resistance 1213.0
December 18 Copper
Support 2.7400 Resistance 2.8000
November 18 Crude Oil
Support 74.09 Resistance 75.13
For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at email@example.com. Thank you.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.
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