Thirty Year Treasury Bond Futures Underperforming

by Archer Financial Services | Sep 04, 2018

By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS   


Stock index futures declined as trade concerns hit investor sentiment.

The 8:45 central time August PMI manufacturing index is expected to be 54.5.

There are two 9:00 reports. The August ISM manufacturing index is anticipated to be 57.7 and the July construction spending report is estimated to be up .4%. 

The still relatively low global interest rate environment and the mostly stronger than estimated U.S. corporate earnings reports remain long term supportive to U.S. stock index futures.

I would not be surprised to see S&P 500 futures recover from the current lower levels and trade higher on the day.



The U.S. dollar advanced as concerns about a possible escalating trade conflict between the U.S. and China prompted investors to sell emerging market currencies. 

The U.S. - Canadian trade talks will resume on Wednesday.

The Reserve Bank of Australia left its key interest rate at 1.5% today, which was widely expected. The Reserve Bank of Australia made the announcement following its monthly policy meeting. A Reuters poll showed of the 42 analysts surveyed, all but one predicted an unchanged policy at today’s meeting. 

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said an interest rate increase in Australia still seems "way off."



Futures are lower in spite of a possible escalating trade conflict between the U.S. and China.

According to financial futures markets, the probability of a fed funds rate increase at the Federal Open Market Committee’s September 26 meeting is 98%, which compares to 96% on Friday.

In addition, another fed funds rate hike is likely in December.

Futures are ignoring the bullish influence of the ongoing trade issues, which should be viewed as a sign of weakness.



September 18   S&P 500

Support    2889.00      Resistance    2914.00


September 18   U.S. Dollar Index

Support    95.030        Resistance    95.650


September 18   Euro Currency

Support    1.15460      Resistance    1.16440


September 18   Japanese Yen

Support    .89640        Resistance    .90330


September 18   Canadian Dollar

Support    .75750        Resistance    .76740


September 18   Australian Dollar

Support    .7150          Resistance    .7245


December 18   Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support    142^24       Resistance    144^8


December 18   Gold

Support    1192.0        Resistance    1212.0


December 18   Copper

Support    2.5850        Resistance    2.6900


October 18   Crude Oil

Support    69.43          Resistance    71.55

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911  or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff.  Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.