By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS
Futures came under pressure when the U.S. employment report was released.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by a seasonally adjusted 157,000 in July, which compares to expectations of 190,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate was 3.9%, which was as anticipated. Revised figures show employers added 248,000 jobs in June and 268,000 in May, which is a net upward revision of 59,000.
The unemployment rate was 4.0% in the prior month.
According to the Financial Times, China lost its status as the world's second largest stock market to Japan as a result of the trade war with the U.S.
The 8:45 central time July PMI Services Index is expected to be 56.3 and the 9:00 July ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is anticipated to be 58.8.
U.S. stock index futures are performing well in spite of the ongoing global trade uncertainties and the weaker than expected nonfarm payrolls report, as the still relatively low global interest rate environment and the mostly stronger than estimated U.S. corporate earnings reports remain supportive.
The U.S. dollar is lower and most foreign currencies are higher, with the exception of the British pound, due to the weaker than expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report.
The British pound is lower on news that the U.K. services sector PMI weakened to a three month low coming in at 53.5, which is down from 55.1 in June and less than the 54.7 forecast by analysts.
The Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar are higher in spite of weaker crude oil prices.
Futures advanced due to the weaker than anticipated U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. However, futures appear to be underperforming the news.
In spite of the weak nonfarm payrolls report, the probability of a fed funds rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee’s September 26 meeting is over 90%.
Although flight to quality buying is likely to come into the market from time to time, the longer term trend for futures is lower, especially for the thirty year Treasury bonds.
September 18 S&P 500
Support 2821.00 Resistance 2839.00
September 18 U.S. Dollar Index
Support 94.700 Resistance 95.240
September 18 Euro Currency
Support 1.15880 Resistance 1.16580
September 18 Japanese Yen
Support .89570 Resistance .90070
September 18 Canadian Dollar
Support .76670 Resistance .77120
September 18 Australian Dollar
Support .7346 Resistance .7418
September 18 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds
Support 142^0 Resistance 142^26
December 18 Gold
Support 1211.0 Resistance 1229.0
September 18 Copper
Support 2.7000 Resistance 2.7900
September 18 Crude Oil
Support 68.43 Resistance 69.55
For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at email@example.com. Thank you.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.
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The risk of loss in trading futures and options on futures can be substantial. Each investor must carefully consider whether this type of investment is appropriate for them. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.