Subtle Shift in China's Trade Rhetoric?

by Archer Financial Services | Jul 12, 2018

By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS   


Stock index futures are higher as traders detected a subtle change in China's rhetoric, which appeared to be a possible softening of its response to President Donald Trump’s tariff threats. China’s Commerce Ministry held off on detailing exactly how it plans to retaliate against President Trump’s latest plans to impose tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese products.

Initial jobless claims decreased 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 214,000 in the week ended July 7. Economists expected 225,000 new claims last week.

U.S. consumer prices increased for a third straight month in June. The consumer price index rose .1% from the previous month, which compares to expectations of a gain of .2%. Consumer prices, excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, increased .2%, as anticipated.

Second quarter earnings season kicks off in earnest tomorrow when major U.S. banks report. 

Analysts are predicting earnings for S&P 500 companies will increase from between 20% to 21% for the second quarter, which is slightly higher than what was forecast in April.

U.S. stock index futures are holding up well in spite of the ongoing global trade uncertainties.



The U.S. dollar declined when the slightly smaller than expected increase in the U.S. consumer price index was reported.

The euro currency is a little lower after the European Commission cut its growth forecast for Germany's economy, citing global trade tensions. The Commission now predicts real gross domestic product will increase 1.9% in 2018 and in 2019, which compares to the previous prediction of 2.3% growth for this year and 2.1% growth for next year.  

Longer term, the euro currency should be supported by speculation that the European Central Bank could increase its key interest rate in July 2019. Previously the consensus view was that the ECB could hike rates in the fall of next year.  

Interest rate differential expectations continue to turn a little more supportive to the euro and slightly less favorable to the U.S. dollar.   

Higher crude oil prices supported the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar.



Futures are lower due to flight to quality long liquidation. However, the selling was limited by the bullish influence of the smaller than expected increase in the consumer price index.

The Treasury will auction thirty year bonds today.

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker will speak at 11:15 and Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari will speak at 7:00 this evening.

The probability of a fed funds rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee’s September 26 meeting is 87%, which is unchanged from yesterday.

Although flight to quality buying is likely to come in from time to time, the longer term trend for futures is lower.



September 18   S&P 500

Support    2769.00       Resistance    2797.00


September 18   U.S. Dollar Index

Support    94.350         Resistance    94.840


September 18   Euro Currency

Support    1.17010       Resistance    1.17560


September 18   Japanese Yen

Support    .89030         Resistance    .89660


September 18   Canadian Dollar

Support    .75670         Resistance    .76220


September 18   Australian Dollar

Support    .7351           Resistance    .7418


September 18   Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support    144^26        Resistance    145^16


August 18   Gold

Support    1240.0         Resistance    1251.0


September 18   Copper

Support    2.7300         Resistance    2.7950


August 18   Crude Oil

Support    70.27           Resistance    71.55

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911  or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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